No Love, No Respect?

In the comments section, Howard made a solid point I want to address.

He wrote:

"Ok, correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t it seem like Duke is on the wrong side of perspective lately? I mean nationally it seems that people believe North Carolina will get better and that Duke is good as they’re going to get. I submit that Duke has as much room for improvement as any team going forward. Our inside players can make huge leaps; I mean it’s in them. The 2nd half of the UNC game is what they are capable of, but they have to put forth an effort like that for a whole game together. Andre and Seth if they can just be consistently good together Duke will be sooo much better. I think Duke’s best games are way out in front and I don’t think it’s close. The great thing about it though is not alot of people nationwide see it, so when it happens it’ll just slap people in the face."

Howard is completely correct in regard to the lowered expectations now placed on Duke. There are three reasons in fact.

First, let’s touch on North Carolina. Last year was a crushing blow to the Carolina brand. Let’s face it, to go from national champion to N.I.T. runner ups is pretty damn embarrassing (even with the lineup changes).

This year, the Tar Heels were improved, but they still didn’t resemble the elite program people expect them to be. Their point guard play was bad and everyone was bashing Harrison Barnes. Yet, prior to their game with Duke, they suddenly got hot. I mean, they were crushing everyone.

Was it a fluke? Maybe. Duke shut them down in the second half, then they only beat Clemson by two, Wake by 14 (when everyone else beats them by 30) and they only beat Boston College at home only because Reggie Jackson couldn’t hit a open three at the buzzer.

The fact is, North Carolina has the “talent” to make an Elite Eight run in the tournament. Of course they also have enough flaws to lose in the first round.

Now as for the two reasons that involve Duke…

First, in everyone’s mind (including Duke fans and coaching staff) there is a pre-Irving’s toe Duke team and a post-Irving’s toe Duke team. The fact is, when Irving was in there, this team passed the eye test. Meaning, Duke looked unbeatable. Hell, prior to his injury, they rarely trailed in a game.

Since the injury, Duke has not only been beaten, but they’ve trailed in the second half in at least six games (based on my count). Now you could argue Duke would probably have two loses even if Irving was playing. The freshman was bound to have a bad game at some point. No matter what though, people are always going to compare those results (pre-toe injury) to any current results.

Secondly, Duke’s strength of schedule has fallen apart as the year has gone on and those early impressive wins no longer look that impressive. Thing about it, prior to ACC play, Duke beat Michigan State and Kansas State (two preseason top-five teams) and Butler ( a preseason top-15 team). All three of those teams have collapsed with a potential to miss the tournament (Michigan State may end up being the only one of the three that goes dancing).

If you look at Ken Pom’s rankings, Duke’s most impressive win so far is in fact against North Carolina (#12 in Ken Pom’s ranking). That would be Duke’s only win against a top-25 opponent.

Duke has just eight contests against teams ranked in the top-50. They’re 6-2 in those games, but two of those wins came against Maryland and no one is confusing the Terps as a title contender.

If teams like Maryland and Boston College (as well as Michigan State, Butler and Kansas State) don’t make the dance, then that would mean that the Blue Devils have only faced what…four tournament teams (Marquette, Florida State, St. John’s and North Carolina) up to this point? Hell, they’re only 2-2 against those four teams.

Now this isn’t Duke’s fault, it’s just a fact. The Blue Devils typically have a top-five strength of schedule and they certainly scheduled what was believed to be one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the pre-season, but it hasn’t panned out that way.

Currently, Duke has the 39th toughest schedule. Of course this will go up when Duke ends the season playing at Virginia Tech, Temple, Clemson and at North Carolina. Those are four tournament-quality teams.

Now Howard made a great point when he talked about Duke’s “best games are way out in front.”

Well, we’re about to find out a lot about this Duke team over the next two weeks. In their next four games, each of those teams I mentioned above are all good teams. They are all either in the tournament or fighting for a spot in the dance. Duke is certainly more talented than those four teams, but can they overcome the “intensity” battle.

Thing about it, in their previous three games, this Duke team has struggled out of the gate against UNC, Miami and Georgia Tech. In all three cases, the opponent came out like their hair was on fire. Of course in all three cases, Duke’s talent overcame those early deficits, so that’s the good news.

However, moving forward I want to see the intensity to match the talent for a full forty. Simply put, Duke needs to find meaning in these games. Remember, one loss and Duke might miss out on a number one seed.

Finally, as for the whole idea of playing under the radar, I’m cool with that. In fact, it’s probably a good thing. It certainly worked for last year’s squad. Players in all sports like to play the “no respect” card. “No one believed in us!”

Moving forward (assuming no Irving), any little edge Duke can get will certainly help in this year’s tournament where any number of teams (eight in my book) who can walk away champions.