Blue Devils Baffled By a Perfect Storm

Sorry for the delay in my post-St. John’s post-game post. I just felt like this one needed a little bit of perspective. The last thing you really wanted to hear was a raving rant from my gut.

After taking a couple days to think about it, all I could come up with was two words: “Don’t” and “panic.

That’s right, don’t panic. Sure, the game was brutal, ugly and like my 1990’s sex tape, should never be seen again. Yet in the end, it was one loss. One non-conference loss. If anything, the ass-whopping should take the spotlight off this team. Duke is clearly no longer the odds on favorite to win it all. In fact, they’re not even worthy or a number one seed right now.

So what’s went wrong?

First and foremost, Duke really did run smack into a perfect storm. St. John’s just played a flawless game. It was clearly the best game they’ve played all year. They were a team desperate for a win, playing a game that they knew could decide their tournament hopes and dreams. At the same time, a good Duke team played a bad game. Mix those two ingredients together and you get a giant bowl of WTF just happened.

One clear problem was that Duke couldn’t hit their outside shots. They started the game 1-22 from three, before hitting their last four (when the game was already decided). Let’s face it, I don’t think many teams are going to win if they shoot 1-22 from three. If Duke shoots 1-22 from three in the NCAA Tournament, they’re going to lose…whether they’re playing in round two or the national title game.

Of course if Duke is shooting well, they’re tough to beat. No team can put five guys (Smith, Curry, Dawkins, Kelly, Singler) on the court at any given moment that can drain a three.  Even if two of them have an off night, that leaves three who can still drain it.

This is what it will come down to in a post-Kyrie Irving era. It’s obvious Duke AGAIN lacks any inside scoring and they lack a truly athletic guard who can create his own shot. Yes, Kyle Singler can create mismatches with his size at SF and yes, Nolan can certainly do some damage in the half court game (he scored 32 against St. John’s), but that’s about it. The rest of the team needs a pass to do their dirty work.

Of course when it comes to shooting, Duke will need to find a way to hit some of these long-range baskets on the road. That’s really been the problem. Sure they’ve had some cold starts at home, but in Cameron, the shots eventually start to go in. On the road, not so much.

Sophomores Andrew Dawkins and Seth Curry are the two that have struggled the most outside Durham. I mean, it’s been brutal. Remember how good they looked early coming off the bench? They were both nailing threes from deep (Dawkins was over 54-percent for the season). Yet, as soon as they hit the road in the ACC, the wheels fell off. Just look at the numbers…the two we once called “The Swat Team” are just 6-38 from three on the road in January (Curry is 3-17, Dawkins 3-21). That’s 16-percent. That’s not good. Their already not the greatest defenders, so if they’re not scoring, they’re then a liability on the court.

The reality is, come tournament time, you’re not at home, but it’s not quite a road game either, so there is no way to judge how these two and everyone else will perform during the tournament.

Let’s not kid ourselves though, this wasn’t just about shooting. Duke’s defense was embarrassing. St. John’s is a good team, with a lot of seniors playing solid minutes, but they’re no offensive juggernaut. Yet, they scored 93 points against a team that is suppose to pride itself on defense.

The fact is, the Red Storm abused the Blue Devils. Duke played man, yawn. Duke switched to a 2-3 zone; St. John’s went 3-3. Duke went to a trap; St. John’s passed through it like it was a morning drill against the JV team. Late in the second half, Duke actually was hitting all their threes. It was time for that miracle run. Duke went full-court press and the Red Storm went through it like they were the Globetrotters playing the Washington Generals. The only thing missing was the confetti in the bucket trick.

Yet, St. John’s didn’t do anything amazing. There wasn’t one superb player/athletic Duke couldn’t handle. There’s no lottery pick on that team. They just executed flawlessly. Duke did not.

While the defensive effort was pathetic, it is one game. A game that, let’s be honest, wasn’t all that important in the grand scheme of things. One bad defensive game can be forgiven. Pull that crap against Maryland on Wednesday, then we got problems.

If we can jump back on the offensive side of things again. St. John’s threw a three-quarter court trap on Duke. Clearly, they wanted the ball out of Nolan Smith’s hands. It was a great strategy, simply because Smith doesn’t have the quickness to dribble around and through it.

The Blue Devils came prepared and when it came to positioning, everyone seemed to be in the right spot. The problem was A) the hesitation and B) the lack of crisp passes. If a team is going to trap, you have to make them pay for it. If they’re trapping Nolan on the other end of the floor, that means someone will be open down the court.

It should be interesting to see if every team throws some sort of full-court defense or trap defense at Duke. More importantly, it will be interesting to see if this Duke team can handle it.

The end result is this…no big deal. At the same time last year, Duke was having their ass handed to them by Georgetown. Yes, I know the Hoyas were a better team last year than this St. John’s team, but that “better” Georgetown team lost six of eight after beating Duke, including a first-round defeat to the Ohio Bobcats.

In the end, that game meant nothing. The conversation last year surrounding that Duke team was the same one people are now having about this Duke team (without Irving), non-athletic, no one can create their own shot, no inside scoring, if they can’t shoot, they can’t win…all that was true last year and is true again now. Yet, it didn’t matter. Luckily last year, Duke never did have a cold night in the tournament and with a little bit of luck (Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky all losing) they managed to win it all. The same holds true of this squad.

Duke is a good team, but not a great team (sounds familiar, right?). Right now, I’d probably have them as a two seed. The reality is, barring some kind of collapse, if they lose just one more game all year long (and win the ACC tournament), they’ll still probably lock down a number one seed as the ACC champ. The fact is, the Big East winner will get a slot, the Big 12 winner will and the Big 10 winner too. This leaves the PAC-10, SEC and ACC battling for that fourth spot (some might argue the second place Big East team, but my guess is they are going to beat each other up too much).