The top teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack. The ACC has four teams that are looking like locks for the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, four teams are battling for a spot in the bubble. The last four, well…there is always next year.
No. 1 DUKE
The Blue Devils are in the mist of a five-game stretch that sees them go on the road four times in those five games. So far, so good, as they’re 2-0. Granted, NC State and Wake Forest won’t be the toughest competition they’ll face this year. Every game it seems like one of the role players steps up to be a solid third option. Against Wake it was Ryan Kelly, who scored 20 and hasn’t missed a shot in over 90 minutes of basketball.
No. 2 FLORIDA STATE
Finally, a second ACC team joins Duke in the top-25. The Seminoles showed no let down after their win over Duke, now winning four straight. The most impressive win may have been their win at Miami. The good news for Florida State is, they don’t have to return the favorite in Durham and they also avoid Virginia Tech for a second time.
No. 3 NORTH CAROLINA
I was checking out the Net the other day and came across an interesting 2011 NBA mock draft. It was interesting because it had zero Tar Heels players in the draft. Really, not even Harrison Barnes? I know he hasn’t lived up to the hype, but someone really thinks he’ll come back to school for his sophomore year? Obviously this would be great news for Carolina fans. This team with another year of experience under their belt, combined with a solid incoming class, would be dangerous.
Having said that, since most mock drafts have both Harrison Barnes and John Henson as lottery picks, I would suspect at least one, if not both, turn pro. Ironically though, Ty Zeller has been the best player for North Carolina, but no one is mentioning his name with the NBA draft.
No. 4 VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies suffered a tough loss Tuesday night to Georgia Tech, but it seems traveling to Atlanta isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. Just ask North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets just seem to get amped up for home games.
With 10 games to go, Virginia Tech will need at least seven wins to get inside NCAA Tournament bubble. Seven more wins would guarantee a 20-win regular season. Of course with five road games left on the schedule, they’re going to need more performances like they had in Maryland and less like they did on Tuesday. The beauty of their remaining schedule is, no more Florida State, no more North Carolina and one game against Duke at home in March. If they can win seven and beat Duke at home, the Hokies will be a lock for the tournament.
No. 5 GEORGIA TECH
Right now, I got four ACC teams into the NCAA Tournament. The reality is, five will probably get in. I’d be shocked if six sneak in. Sadly though, the Yellow Jackets probably can’t do enough to be that fifth team, even if they finish better than Maryland, BC and Clemson in the ACC.
The fact is, there are too many bad, bad, bad loses on Tech’s schedule. To overcome loses to Kennesaw State, Siena and Charlotte, Georgia Tech would need to either win the ACC tournament or finish 8-3 in the ACC. That would put them 18-12 on the season (11-5 in the ACC). That might be good enough to do it. That would mean they would need to go undefeated at home and 2-3 on the road.
No. 6 BOSTON COLLEGE
At 14-6 and 4-2 in the ACC, BC is already doing better than what most experts would have predicted. However, do they have a legit shot at a NCAA birth? They do have some solid wins (borderline signature) worth bragging about. They beat a good Texas A&M team and they went into Maryland and took care of business against the Terrapins.
They are only 4-4 in their last eight, so reality is starting to set in. While they probably only need to go 10-6 in the ACC (6-4 the rest of the way) to get in, can they do that? The problem is, Boston College has the toughest final 10 games in the ACC. They play both Virginia Tech and a road trip Thursday to Duke.
No. 7 CLEMSON
Like so many ACC teams, the Tigers continue to take care of business at home, but can’t find a win on the road. Of course, their three homes wins are against Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina State. Those three teams are a combined 0-9 on the road in the ACC. However, this Saturday a real test is heading to Littlejohn. Florida State, the conference’s hottest team, shows up. Here is Clemson’s shot to prove that they belong in the conversation. What conversation? You know, the tournament conversation.
What I like about Clemson is that while they’re not really great at anything, they’re good at a lot. Currently, they’re one of only two ACC teams (Duke is the other) to be top-50 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.
No. 8 MARYLAND
The Terrapins are an odd team. Here is a squad that fought hard against top teams like Duke, Pittsburgh and Villanova (all loses), but then lost at home to Virginia Tech and Boston College. Sounds like a maturity issue if you ask me. When you look at Maryland’s numbers, you see a lot of good stats. They score over 77 points per game, allowing just under 64. Their margin of victory is second only to Duke. They’re second in shooting percentage and second in shooting percentage allowed. They’re second in rebounding, fourth in blocks and first in assists. What’s going on?
First, Maryland has padded their stats against their weakest opponents, beating up weaker opponents like Seattle (+29), Maine (+30), Delaware (+18), Elon (+19), Penn State (+23), NC Greensboro (+33), NJ Inst of Technology (+39), North Florida (+23) and Colgate (+55).
Things have gotten tougher in the ACC, thus the stats have fallen. In ACC play, Maryland scores about eight points less, they give up seven points more per game. They fall to 8th in shooting percentage, 9th in shooting % allowed.
No. 11 NORTH CAROLINA STATE
The Wolfpack probably have no business being ranked ahead of Virginia, but at least State got their star power forward back, not that Tracy Smith’s return is really helping. North Carolina State has dropped four of five and they’re losing every way possible. They’re losing on the road (Boston College), at home (Duke), against good teams (Florida State) and against average teams (Clemson).
The reality is, State’s season could be coming to an end in the next 10 days. They have back-to-back-to-back games at North Carolina, home versus Virginia Tech and back on the road at Duke. Does anyone see NC State winning any of those three games?
No. 10 VIRGINIA
The Cavaliers ended a three-game slide with a nice win over Georgia Tech, but I wouldn’t count on them going on some kind of winning streak here. With 11 games left on the schedule, one would hope they could go 6-5, winning their six homes games. However, four of their six home games will be against ACC teams ranked in the top-40 in Ken Pom’s rankings.
If they are going to pull off some W’s, they’ll going to have to find a way to do it without Mike Scott. Virginia’s top player is officially out for the season, as he will have his second ankle surgery this year. With that kind of news, it is hard to see Virginia ending the season over .500.
No. 11 MIAMI
The Hurricanes have dropped four of five and once again look ready to collapse in the ACC. Of course, the biggest defeats were at home against Florida State and Wednesday night against North Carolina. The fact is, there is no shame in losing on the road in this conference, just about everyone does it. Yet, they had two great opportunities to get over the hump and beat two good teams on their home court…and they failed.
In both cases, Miami built early leads (10 points against FSU, 14 against UNC), only to lose it in the final seconds. Against the Seminoles, they had two chances to tie or win the game in the final seconds, but they couldn’t get the ball in the basket. Against UNC, Harrison Barnes hit a game-winning three with six seconds left.
No. 12 WAKE FOREST
The question some have been asking is, will the Demon Deacons finish the ACC in 0-16? I seriously doubt it. Even the worst teams have a hot day against a cold opponent. Wake’s best shot will probably come this Saturday against a depleted Virginia team. I’ll give you two reasons why. First, Virginia is terrible at guarding the three line (#286 in the nation), whereas the Demon Deacons are not too bad at shooting it (#61 in the nation). Secondly, Wake is a solid FT shooting team (74-percent), while Virginia tends to foul a lot.