So what needs to happen? What do we need to see to assure that Duke’s stay at #1 isn’t a short one. I’ve thought of five things.
#1 SCORE INSIDE EARLY – The trick on the road in the ACC is shock & awe. Come out swinging and knock the crowd out of it early. Also, its been a full week since Wake last played, losing to Virginia Tech. They’re going to be antsy. For Duke, they cannot come out heaving up three’s. They need to go inside often to get some easy baskets and show that they’re not intimidated by Wake’s front court.
#2 ROTATING D – When Duke’s defense in working, it’s a thing of beauty. There’s nothing more enjoyable than watching an opponent’s point guard dribble around screen after screen and see a bevy of Duke players switch off onto that guard. Poetry in motion. Teague is good and he’s going to get his, but will he get frusrated to see Smith, Scheyer, Singler, Henderson and even McClure all guarding him at some point tonight. If Wake is smart, they’ll be trying to bait the switch and create match up problems when one of their bigs rotates off and finds a smaller guard in his back pocket.
#3 NOLAN’S AIM – Wake’s D will be looking to double down on Singler and Henderson (when he floats into the lane). Nolan Smith (Paulus and Scheyer as well) will have plenty of opportunities to hang around the three-point line. He needs to nail them when those moments arrive.
#4 PATIENCE – I’m speaking primarily to Zoubek. There’s going to be some rough moments inside. McFarland is also a 7-footer, who’s better than Brian. Zoubek will miss some shots, he’ll miss some rebounds and he’ll probably have a handful of shots block. He can’t get frustated. Duke will be relying on his offensive rebounding and his ability to dish the ball from the post.
#5 SMALL-BALL – It’s simple, Coach K can’t be afraid to go small ball on the bigger, stronger Deacons. If Duke finds themselves struggling against Wake, look for Coach to stick McClure into the lineup and go small, forcing the action up high.
Let me add one more for fun.
#6 LET’S GET PHYSICAL – Don’t be afraid to get physical and don’t be afraid to foul. Like Duke, Wake is deep (ten players play at least ten minutes), but they’re not the best free throw shooting team. Of those ten, six shoot less than 70% from the charity stripe. Of Duke’s ten players who average 10 minutes per game, only three have failed to crack 70% this season. Prime example: In Wake’s only loss, they missed 15 of 37 free throws (59%). In fact, in their four closes games (decided by six points or less), the Demons have shot 51, 76, 69 and 70% from the free throw line). Got it? No easy baskets tonight.
BALLSY PREDICTION
This game reminds me a lot of the game last year against Pittsburgh. Duke will be facing a bigger, stronger team with a solid point who can score. If the Devils want to prove this year’s team is not last year’s team, then a win is a must. However, I’ve predicted all along that Duke would split their season series with Both Wake and North Carolina. I’m not going to change my mind now.
PREDICTION: Wake Forest wins a slugfest 73-66.