What a massive matchup for this young Blue Devils team this Wednesday. They will be playing their fourth ranked opponent in their first eight games. This time it is at Cameron Indoor Stadium against Bruce Pearl and the #2 ranked Auburn Tigers. The Tigers were not projected to be a top 10 team at the start of the year, as they opened up the year at #11. That being said they have not disappointed, getting out to a red-hot 7-0 start with wins over Houston, North Carolina, Iowa State and Memphis. So today we will dive in and take a look at some historical data, but giving you our thoughts on how the game will go on Wednesday evening.
Auburn vs. Duke Historical Data
Incredibly tough spot here for the Blue Devils, as they not only face a 7-0 team, but one that has covered in seven of those games. Now historically these two have only faced off on one occasion, back in 2018. That Duke team featured Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, while Auburn was led by Jared Harper on that occasion. Duke came out on top 78-72, so a higher scoring affair on that occasion. That was at the Maui Invitational, and no players from that game will be featured in this one on Wednesday.
Not only have the Tigers yet to lose, they have been incredibly efficient in those wins. They are 253rd in pace, but average over 86 points per game (22nd in the nation) and shoot 52.5% from the field (5th best in the country). One player to monitor for the contest is Miles Kelly, who is listed as a game-time decision with a wrist injury. He may be just the fifth leading scorer for Auburn, but he shoots 41% from downtown, so he would be a huge loss if unavailable.
The key players on Auburn to keep an eye out for are F/C Johni Broome and G/F Chad Baker-Mazara. Broome has been a problem this year, averaging over 20 points per game, while hauling in almost 13 rebounds per game. Khaman Maluach is likely to draw that defensive assignment, so keeping him in check would be critical if Duke wants to pull off the upset. What Baker-Mazara brings to the table is an ability to hit the three ball consistently, as he’s almost a 45% three-point shooter. Cooper Flagg may draw this assignment, which Duke fans know Flagg is likely our top defender. Limiting his ability to get off good looks from downtown is also something to monitor for Duke.
What We Expect For #2 Auburn vs. #9 Duke On Wednesday Night
Heading into this matchup Duke will have a couple of edges, including on the defensive end of the floor. Playing in front of the Crazies is always an asset as well, but at least for me this is the toughest test they will face all year. Auburn may not have been top 10 preseason, but they are a top three team in the country now and are battled tested.
This also feels like a critical spot for Duke, as we know once they enter ACC play the level of competition will dip. Hanging your hat on just one big win over Arizona will not be enough for this group to be considered a one seed in March. There is also something to be said about Auburn being a bit tired after the Maui. Yes it is a week off since then, but three games in three days, all against quality opponents, I think they are due for some regression.
I would not fault anyone for looking at Auburn ML given it is plus money as we write this article. But considering both teams are great on the defensive end, I think the under may be worth a look. Buckets will be tough to come by in this game, so seeing a 144.5 total right now feels like an under to me. Be sure to tune in, you won't want to miss one of the marquee Duke games of the season, especially at home.