#12 Duke vs. #17 Arizona betting analysis
The Duke Blue Devils have their second ranked test of the season on Friday as they head to the McKale Center to take on the #17 Arizona Wildcats. Both teams come in ranked, but not undefeated, each suffering early season defeats to Kentucky and Wisconsin respectively. While a win or loss will not make or break either team's season, it is an opportunity to showcase their talents early on. This matchup will have talented freshmen, as well as upperclassmen, who were a part of last year's 78-73 game which ended in favor of Arizona. So what should you be looking at when placing your wagers on Friday?
Duke vs. Arizona Historical Data
These two programs have faced off ten times in their illustrious history, with Arizona winning six of those games. The Wildcat fan base coming into this game has recent bragging rights, winning the last three head to head matchups, including last year's 78-73 victory at Cameron Indoor. If you are a true Duke fan though, you accept those losses knowing that we had the ultimate bragging rights of beating Arizona in the National Championship game 82-72 back in 2001.
Now, let's go back to that game I mentioned several times from last year. Teams going on the road in non-conference play and coming away with a win in front of the Cameron Crazies is a rarity. But when you out-rebound your opponent 45-33, you are often going to find success. All five of Arizona's starters finished with double-digit points, while Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach led Duke with 25 and 17 points respectively.
This 2024-25 Arizona team features many of the same pieces. Caleb Love may be the only starter from last years group, but Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis have stepped up this year to lead the team in scoring, after being bench players last year. Duke's Caleb Foster and Tyrese Proctor were part of last years Blue Devil squad, but it will be the freshmen talents of Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel on Duke that will need to step up.
As far as this years betting numbers, neither team has been spectacular. While Duke are 3-0 against the spread at home, they lost outright and therefore did not cover in their only game away from Cameron. Arizona, while they are 2-1 overall, have only covered in one of their games. As far as game totals go, these two have gone over in four of their seven combined matchups. That being said, a 160.5 line in college basketball is quite high, so both offenses will need to be playing with pace and hitting shots.
What We Expect For Duke vs. Arizona On Friday Night
Last year I really looked at Caleb Love's point line and thought "a former Tar Heel in Cameron? He must go off" and he sailed under his point line quite comfortably. So I want to preface that I have not always been right about how Duke will do against the Wildcats. I think when you are talking pure betting value in a game like this, you have to lean toward Duke on the moneyline. That is not just a Duke fan talking, but one that sees a line that is only -1.5 for Arizona at home. That tells you that even Vegas is unsure of where this game is heading. So to get a +105 for Duke to win outright, I think that has tremendous value to it.
You will not find many spots this year where Duke are outright dogs. I think Flagg knows he has a lot of haters to silence after how his final minute against Kentucky went. Knueppel also knows he cannot have another rough shooting night like he did in the Champions Classic. I will have my JJ Redick jersey on, rooting for the boys, and may even sprinkle some coin on them while I do. This is one of those must-watch non-conference games in December and let's hope Duke comes out winners on the other side.