Duke Basketball vs Kentucky Preview

Nov 13, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Mason Plumlee (5) drives to the basket against Kentucky Wildcats forward Willie Cauley-Stein (15) during the first half of the 2012 Champions Classic at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Duke played Kentucky early last season, winning a close game, 75-68. This was the beginning of a tough season for Kentucky, who failed to make the NCAA tournament. This years team is much more talented for Coach Calipari. There are questions if this team can gel, but the talent is definitely there. Like with Louisville, these teams are not scheduled to play, but if they do it will be an extremely close game. Like Louisville, if Duke and Kentucky were to play, it would likely be in atleast the Elite Eight. This is another great match up that I expect would come down to the wire.

All stats are from last season unless stated otherwise.

Point Guard
•Duke: Quinn Cook (Jr) 11.7 ppg, 5.3 apg, 3.8 rpg, 1.4 spg, at Duke.
•Kentucky: Andrew Harrison (Fresh) 14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 5.1 apg, at Fort Bend Travis High School.
Quinn Cook has more experience then Andrew Harrison does, but Harrison is more talented. Andrew is touted as the better of the two brothers, and was a top 5 recruit. Andrew has the huge advantage in this match up due to his size advantage. He is a 6’5″ point guard who will greatly bother Cook with his height. At 6’1″, Cook would struggle to shoot over Harrison, and drive around him. Cook will still be able to set up his teammates, but Harrison will be much more successful scoring the ball. This is a match up that I see Kentucky definitely taking advantage of. Duke can only hope Andrew Harrison tries to score too much at the expense of his teammates. If Cook can get Harrison to over shoot, he will have done his job and put Duke i a decent position to win. If Harrison plays smart, by scoring and distributing, Kentucky will be in great shape.
•Advantage: Kentucky

Shooting Guard
•Duke: Rasheed Sulaimon (Soph) 11.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, at Duke.
•Kentucky: Aaron Harrison (Fresh) 23.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, 2.0 spg, at Fort Bend Travis High School.
This is another very good match up, but I see experience beating youth this time. Both are extremely good drivers and can play solid defense. Aaron Harrison will likely have a similar season to Sulaimon’s freshman year, extreme highs but very inconsistent. Aaron tends to get down on himself on poor shooting nights. With an extra year to improve his game, Sulaimon should be the better player. Sulaimon should be able to build upon the great games he had while eliminating the bad ones. With Harrison not the greatest defender yet, Sulaimon should have a great game against him, scoring upwards of 15 points. There will be a lot of scoring in this match up, but I expect Sulaimon to have the slight edge. His experience and advantage in defense should allow him to play well in of one of the few positions Duke has the advantage over Kentucky.
•Advantage: Duke

Small Forward
•Duke: Rodney Hood (Soph) 10.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, at Mississippi State 2011-12.
•Kentucky: Alex Poythress (Soph) 11.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, at Kentucky.
Another close match up that I see slightly ending up in Duke’s favor. Both have similar skill sets, but I see Rodney Hood as a player that is more willing to take over a game. Last season, Poythress did not assert himself very much on what was not an extremely talented offensive team. With the team improving this season, I can not imagine that assertiveness improving this season. He is still a solid rebounder and defender, but does not use one of his strengths, attacking off the dribble. Rodney Hood may not have Poythress’ strength, but he is much more willing to attack. He may score a little less then he usually does, but he will likely score more then Poythress does. In what will be another tight and tough match up, I expect Rodney Hood to have the slight advantage, and for Duke to hopefully capitalize on it.
•Advantage: Duke

Power Forward
•Duke: Jabari Parker (Fresh) 18.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.1 bpg, 1.9 spg, at Simeon High School.
•Kentucky: Julius Randle (Fresh) 27.5 ppg, 13.5 rpg, in a limited season due to injuries at Prestonwood High School.
In a match up between two consensus top five recruits, the one who is rated higher will have the edge. Randle’s athleticism will allow him to be one of the better defenders against Parker that he could possibly see. Randle will also have the offensive edge against Parker in the post. Randle is stronger then Parker and will be able to back him down successfully. With that being said, Parker is just more talented then Randle. Parker can score in so many ways, and will find some way to beat Randle offensively. This is another match up where offense will be key. Randle will definitely out rebound Parker, but Parker will score more points. Overall, I think Parker will have a larger impact on the game for Duke then Randle will for Kentucky.
•Advantage: Duke

Center
•Duke: Marshall Plumlee (Soph) 0.1 ppg, 0.6 rpg, at Duke.
•Kentucky: Willie Cauley-Stein (Soph) 8.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg, at Kentucky.
All the other match ups will be fairly close, but this one will be huge in Kentucky’s favor. Willie Cauley-Stein got a huge amount of experience last season when Nerlens Noel got injured. Marshall Plumlee never got that experience, with Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and an injury himself. Cauley-Stein is still a raw player, but he has a lot more developed talent then Plumlee. No matter which big Duke throws at Cauley-Stein, he will have the advantage. He is just too skilled for Plumlee and too tall for Jefferson. This is a match up Kentucky will absolutely need to take advantage of and I believe they will. Duke’s main weakness this season is at center, and Kentucky will be able to go after that weakness. This position isn’t even close and Kentucky will have a huge edge in this match up.
•Advantage: Kentucky

Bench
•Duke:
Tyler Thorton (Senior) 3.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.3 spg, at Duke.
Andre Dawkins (Senior) 8.4 ppg, 2.1 apg, at Duke 2011-12.
Amile Jefferson (Soph) 4.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, at Duke.
•Kentucky
James Young (Fresh) 26.4 ppg, 14.2 rpg, at Rochester High School.
Marcus Lee (Fresh) 17.9 ppg, 19.1 rpg, 6.9 bpg, at Deer Valley High School.
Kyle Wiltjer (Jr) 10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, at Kentucky.
This is another area in which Kentucky has a huge advantage. They do not have the defensive player, Tyler Thorton, or shooter, Andre Dawkins, but they have a lot more talent. Wiltjer is a proven player who will act as their upperclassman and leader. Young, Lee and even Dakari Johnson will all have huge impacts for Kentucky. Duke is a deep basketball team, but in no way has the talent off the bench that Duke has. This will allow Kentucky to funnel in players quickly in a fast paced game, that Duke will be unable to do. It also allows Kentucky to bring in extremely talented back ups if one player happens to have a bad game. This ability to play 9 extremely talented players gives Kentucky a huge edge in this category.
•Advantage: Kentucky

Who will win?
•Kentucky
It is yet to be seen how well Kentucky will gel as a team, but they are more talented then Duke. They both have the same amount of advantages, but Kentucky’s are by a much wider margin. Based off of pure skill, Kentucky is by far the best team in the country. If they can make all the talent they have work together, then they will be able to beat any team in the country, including Duke. Even with that said, I expect this would be a close game, and I would not count Duke out from pulling out a very close victory.

Tomorrow, I will be previewing my first match up that is scheduled to happen, Duke vs. Michigan. This is an extremely good match up that will be an early factor in determining these teams place in college basketball. Check here tomorrow to see who I think would win the game.