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Duke basketball: 3 takeaways from brutal NCAA Tournament draw

Kevin Connelly
Kevin Connelly

Ball Durham

Duke basketball (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Duke basketball
Duke basketball guard Trevor Keels (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

The Duke basketball team is back in the NCAA Tournament with a tough draw. 

Selection Sunday always provides the hottest takes of the season about which team got an easy path to the Final Four and which are the toughest. And the Duke basketball program is not immune to those takes.

Duke fans think the path for the Blue Devils to win the title is the hardest while non-Duke fans think the Blue Devils were given a cakewalk to New Orleans.

Here lies the truth: no one knows anything.

This tournament is so good and so unpredictable that you don’t really know if a No. 3 seed will dominate the No. 14 seed.

Watch Coach K’s final NCAA Tournament with a free trial of Sling TV

What if a No. 9 seed stuns the No. 1 seed?

Nonetheless, the Blue Devils are back in the field for the first time since the 2019 tournament and were slotted as the No. 2 seed in the West Region.

ALSO READ: Duke barely hangs on for No. 2 seed in NCAA Tournament

Perhaps the team could have been in a more favorable geographical location if it had not lost on Saturday in the ACC Tournament Championship or in home games against Miami, Virginia, and North Carolina.

However, Duke will face the Cal State Fullerton Titans, the champions of the Big West Conference, in the Round of 64.

Duke basketball still with things to fix before NCAA Tournament

There are not many people surrounding the Blue Devils who feel overly confident heading into the NCAA Tournament given the recent play of the team.

Duke’s defense was mediocre at best during the ACC Tournament, and it was exposed by Virginia Tech on Saturday night.

Teams will be looking to quickly exploit the deficiencies of the Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament and be the school that ends the Hall of Fame career of Mike Krzyzewski.

Which team might that be? We look at the takeaways from the West Region.

Duke basketball
Duke basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski and Michigan State’s Tom Izzo (Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports)

Takeaways from Duke basketball NCAA Tournament draw: 

Michigan State Looms

Duke and Michigan State playing in the NCAA Tournament. What else is new?

The Spartans were slotted as the No. 7 seed in the West Region on Sunday evening, but a final meeting between Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo might not be guaranteed.

While it is assumed Duke will make its way into the Round of 32, Michigan State got a tough assignment against No. 10 seed Davidson in the Round of 64.

The Wildcats fell a possession shy in the Atlantic-10 Tournament Championship but sport the same style of guards that gave the Blue Devils trouble on Saturday.

Izzo’s team certainly was not playing its best basketball in the final weeks of the season after losing seven of its last ten to end the regular season.

The Spartans took down Maryland and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament before falling to Purdue in the semifinals.

Duke vs. Michigan State is the potential headliner at the bottom of the West Region, but it might not be a sure thing.

Duke basketball
Duke basketball forward Wendell Moore (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

Takeaways from Duke basketball NCAA Tournament draw: 

Potential Sweet 16 Matchup Looks Daunting

This half of the West Region truly looks daunting for Duke, assuming the Blue Devils make it to the Sweet 16.

Texas Tech is the No. 3 seed. Alabama is the No. 6, and the Crimson Tide will get the winner of Rutgers and Notre Dame in the First Round. Montana State is the No. 14 seed.

Assuming one of Texas Tech, Alabama, or Rutgers advances to the Sweet 16, that is no easy task for Duke to overcome.

Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the country, and its effort on the defensive side of the ball is noticeable every time it touches the floor.

Alabama is one of the most dangerous teams in the country but also one of the most difficult to figure out. The Crimson Tide have lost to some bad teams but also have wins over Gonzaga and some of the best teams in the SEC.

Rutgers, like Alabama, had some really bad losses early in the season, but the Scarlet Knights also have some outstanding victories on their home floor this season.

If Duke can get to the second week, its potential opponents will not be easy to prepare for.

Duke basketball
Duke basketball forward Paolo Banchero (Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)

Takeaways from Duke basketball NCAA Tournament draw: 

Gonzaga Awaits

The Gonzaga Bulldogs, the No. 1 overall seed, await at the top of the bracket.

Can anyone in the upper half of the region dethrone the ‘Zags? Probably not.

The Bulldogs lost three games this season: Duke, Alabama, and St. Mary’s.

Two of those teams were put in this region, which could set up a classic rematch between the two programs to go to the Final Four. The drama.

It feels like Duke was a better team when it beat Gonzaga on a neutral floor in Las Vegas than it is now, but perhaps the Blue Devils have yet to unleash another gear this season. It’s not likely, but perhaps it is in there.

Everything gets started for Duke on Friday night against Cal State Fullerton.

Kevin Connelly

Kevin Connelly

Site Expert of Ball Durham and Storm The Paint, which covers Duke and St. John's, respectively.