Duke basketball success next season could depend on three individual gains.
Over the years, the Duke basketball program has seen its fair share of talents make giant leaps. Guys like Nolan Smith, Ryan Kelly, and Quinn Cook immediately come to mind from the past dozen campaigns.
Two of those weapons, Smith and Cook, significantly added to their artillery just in time as upperclassmen, helping anchor the most recent Blue Devil championship runs in 2010 and 2015, respectively.
Now, looking ahead to the 2021-22 quest, which will be Mike Krzyzewski’s 42nd and last in Durham before Jon Scheyer becomes head coach, three fellas stand out for needing breakthroughs. Otherwise, Duke is unlikely to cut down nets on April 4 in New Orleans — plain and simple.
So let’s list the three, one at a time, paying close attention to the areas they most need to improve for the team to maximize its potential:
Three areas for Duke basketball wing Joey Baker to improve
- Defense (only 0.3 steals and 0.3 blocks per game last season)
- Playmaking (0.5 assists per game for his career with almost all of his production coming as a spot-up shooter)
- Consistency (three points or less in 35 of his 55 college games)
Of the nine or more players who could form the regular Duke basketball rotation next season, rising senior Joey Baker is one of a few who could just as quickly wind up in Mike Krzyzewski’s doghouse time and again.
Despite several promising performances beyond the arc, Baker has yet to carve out a constant role.
The 6-foot-6, 205-pound former four-star recruit has never played double-digit minutes in more than seven consecutive games. And Baker has only once put up back-to-back double-digit point totals. Both these feats came early on in his sophomore year, easily his most productive stretch thus far as a collegian.
Here’s a three-step guide to Baker solidifying his place within the 2021-22 Blue Devil scheme:
- Emphasize lateral movement in training this summer, pairing that with a ball-hawking mentality to no longer stick out like an exposable sore thumb on the defensive end.
- Develop a few more go-to moves when stuck in precarious situations, perhaps by tightening up the handles while crafting a more extensive array of solid jab steps and shot fakes, à la 2020-21 All-ACC Duke forward Matthew Hurt.
- Become more active without the ball, ceaselessly hunting out opportunities to get open both from deep and around the rim.
Why is it so imperative that Baker improve? Well, for one, he’s the lone fourth-year Duke basketball name on the roster. Furthermore, he’s likely to be a co-captain alongside this other upperclassman who also still needs a lot of work:
Three areas for Duke basketball forward Wendell Moore to improve
- Ball protection (3.5 turnovers per 40 minutes as a Blue Devil)
- 3-point shooting (28.3 percent for his college career)
- Confidence (countless disappearing acts)
If not for a couple of glaring flaws, Wendell Moore would have wrapped up a full-time Duke basketball starting gig a long time ago, perhaps even as a freshman. His length, athleticism, and resilient attitude are glowing strengths. There’s no question about any of that.
Therefore, once the season begins on Nov. 9 against Kentucky in the Champions Classic, the Blue Devils could surely use timely doses of all that is encouraging about Moore.
A couple of five-star Duke rookies are on tap at or near Moore’s position, though. This influx suggests the 6-foot-5, 215-pound former four-star recruit is in danger of drawing fewer starts, even as a probable co-captain this go-round, than in either of his first two campaigns (started 11 times as a freshman and then 19 across the Blue Devils’ 13-11 disappointment as a sophomore).
But the three-part formula for Moore to prosper as a junior is pretty straightforward:
- Create without letting the body get ahead of the mind, thereby without falling headfirst like a goalline fullback when trying to drive the lane or finish a fastbreak.
- Refine the 3-point stroke, aiming for at least a 35.0 shooting percentage with roughly 1.5 splashes per outing.
- Build self-belief by remembering past magic, such as when simply being in the right place at the right time on Feb. 28, 2020, left Chapel Hill in a state of utter agony.
Simple enough. At least on paper, anyway.
Three areas for Duke basketball guard Jeremy Roach to improve
- Intensity (only 2.2 rebounds and 0.8 steals per game as a freshman)
- Instincts (an average of 2.0 turnovers to only 2.8 assists)
- FT shooting (67.5 percent last season)
As arguably the most vital piece of the three on this list, Jeremy Roach must build on the strides he showed late in the 2020-21 campaign, just as Duke was finding its stride. That moment, of course, coincided with a positive COVID-19 test within the program, making the Blue Devils’ late surge all for naught following their pair of clicking-on-all-cylinders wins in the ACC Tournament.
At the time, Roach was finally finding his rhythm, both as a 3-point marksman and a floor general, after failing throughout the season to lock down his starting gig. Now, with the start of his sophomore campaign less than three months away, the 6-foot-1, 170-pound former five-star recruit again looks to be first in line for a stab at cementing the first-string status at the point.
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This time around, Roach can seal the deal and potentially guide Duke basketball back to the promised land via this three-course regimen:
- Capitalize on having relatively light feet to stir things up more often on both ends of the floor, regularly referring to Tre Jones footage for a general how-to when it comes to serving as a constant creator on offense and a constant nuisance on defense.
- Fine-tune the decision-making process, especially in traffic, leaving behind all the timid drives and prayers under duress from last season that essentially equated to gifts for opponents.
- Get rid of irregularities at the charity stripe in preparation for an increased number of trips there as a second-year Blue Devil — in light of what hopes to be a much more calculated piercing attack.
Yes, the rest should fall into place, thanks to the trio of five-star newcomers in Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, and Trevor Keels, in addition to all the rest.