A Duke basketball offseason’s midpoint calls for a predicted starting five.
Admittedly, Ball Durham already projected the 2021-22 Duke basketball starting lineup back in April. Last we checked, though, no law regulates how many times Dukies may stare into space while pondering the next batch of starters. Besides, it’s the most guaranteed way for fans to “get their fix” anytime throughout a six-month offseason.
Keep in mind as well that so much in Durham has changed since April.
In early June, Mike Krzyzewski revealed that this season will be his last as a head coach. On the same day, he named current righthand man Jon Scheyer his successor-in-waiting.
Add to that the fact all of the players are now on campus and competing in scrimmages. And to aid Blue Devil junkies in partying to Duke thoughts, the program’s social media has been posting various highlights of the squad’s on-court action and off-court escapades.
So with all of the above in mind, just how much has changed when it comes to the projected starting five? Honestly, not much. That said, in light of the announced succession plans plus the accumulating footage of the fellas, there is one tweak here. In addition, as a bonus to this edition of starter predictions, we’ll wrap things up by forecasting the primary bench weapons.
Basically, this is a mid-offseason attempt at envisioning the main rotation. So let’s get started with a stab at identifying the starters, one at a time and beginning at point guard…
Projected Duke basketball starter: Jeremy Roach
No, Jeremy Roach certainly didn’t exceed expectations last season. In fact, when the 6-foot-1, 170-pound point guard wasn’t clanging 3-point attempts or committing silly turnovers, he was often pulling disappearing acts on the floor.
On the other hand, it wasn’t as if the former five-star prospect out of Virginia totally crumbled in his attempt to fill the shoes of a legendary Duke basketball point guard in 2019-20 ACC Player and Defender of the Year Tre Jones.
Rather, Roach showed some promise as a backcourt threat, compiling a handful of impressive stat lines.
Perhaps Roach’s numbers from a late-February home win over Syracuse were his all-around best and most indicative of the box scores to come as a sophomore: 14 points, seven assists, five rebounds, three turnovers, and one steal in 34 minutes while shooting 5-for-7 from the field, including 4-for-5 beyond the arc.
With frequent outings like that, Roach would surely have no problem locking down this starting job next season after seeing 18 starts — despite occasionally zeroing out in the scoring column — between 24 games as a freshman.
Projected Duke basketball starter: Wendell Moore
Back in April, the projected starter here was future five-star freshman Trevor Keels. But to no fault of his own, the two-spot is where this predicted lineup differs from the last at Ball Durham.
See, after observing all the scrimmage highlights and whatnot, it’s clear just how well Wendell Moore appears to gel with all the newbies and returning players alike.
All smiles yet all business. All signs of a solid Duke captain.
In addition, it’s worth remembering Mike Krzyzewski’s penchant for playing the Charlotte native early and often, despite all the miscues and misses, across each of his first two years in Durham. Furthermore, minus Moore, this proposed starting five would consist of only sophomores and freshmen.
Now, when considering all of the above, it does seem the 6-foot-5, 215-pound Moore likely will draw the starting nod over Keels, at least throughout the non-conference portion of the schedule. Of course, should Moore’s mistakes begin to mount to the same level as some of his ugliest outings thus far as a Blue Devil, Keels could quickly supplant him as the man for this starting job.
Projected Duke basketball starter: AJ Griffin
Indeed, AJ Griffin ought to bring the invaluable type of undeniable toughness — with just a hint of outright meanness — that was so often sorely missing from the ultimately disappointing 2020-21 Duke basketball roster.
A chiseled competitor is now on campus, plain and simple.
On that note, if nothing else, the 6-foot-6, 220-pound Griffin should be able to intimidate foes with both his grown-man muscles and almost unhuman athleticism.
Don’t forget that he, along with the upcoming predicted starter at the four-spot here, eclipsed the 40-inch mark in the vertical leap shortly after moving to Durham in June. And don’t forget that Griffin has been committed to playing for the Blue Devils ever since November 2019, in what was his junior year of high school at Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.).
Eyeing the film, it’s reasonable to imagine Griffin more than living up to his five-star billing. Given the small forward’s size and hops plus the hoops acumen he’s picked up as the son of current Toronto Raptors assistant coach and former nine-year NBA player Adrian Griffin, it’d be quite a shock if he doesn’t earn a starting gig from the get-go next season.
Heck, Griffin even has an outside chance at outshining this next heralded newcomer…
Projected Duke basketball starter: Paolo Banchero
Have no fear. Make no mistake. Vote for Paolo. Whichever way you decide to word it, the underlying message is quite simple: Paolo Banchero is “the chosen one” for the 2021-22 Duke basketball team.
At No. 2 overall on the 247Sports 2021 Composite, Banchero is the highest-ranked recruit to arrive in Durham since RJ Barrett in 2018. Also, he’ll be the highest-ranked power forward since Marvin Bagley III came to town in 2017.
Needless to say, Banchero also comes across as worthy of his lofty status. After all, given the growth to what is now his NBA-ready game — not to mention his reported growth spurt into a 6-foot-10, 250-pound rugged specimen — there’s an argument to be made that he should’ve held the top spot among his peers over Gonzaga’s 7-foot, 190-pound slim jim, Chet Holmgren.
At the same time, it’s completely understandable for fans to be a bit hesitant about gushing over a rookie-to-be after watching last season’s top Duke freshman, Jalen Johnson, bail on the eventual 13-11 squad in February with six games to go in the regular season.
In fairness, though, we should judge Paolo Banchero by what Paolo Banchero does with his time as a Blue Devil.
Actually, just go ahead and believe in Banchero.
Projected Duke basketball starter: Mark Williams
So long as Mark Williams possesses nothing less than the set of skills he put on display down the stretch last season, there’s little to no doubt that the 7-foot, 240-pound center will be a part of the 2021-22 Duke basketball starting lineup.
However, we must take into account what Coach K described last year as “tendonitis knee problems” that seem to follow Williams around. With that in mind, a minutes restriction — or perhaps just a sense of caution regarding his playing time — could prove unavoidable in what will be the sophomore’s first college campaign with a full slate of games in the regular season.
Again, though, let’s just assume that once the 2021-22 schedule tips off against Kentucky on Nov. 9 in the Champions Classic, Williams picks up where he left off by asserting his insane length, understated athleticism, and general paint prowess.
If that is indeed the case, then the 19-year-old former five-star recruit from Virginia could force himself into the All-America conversation.
Projected Duke basketball rotation
Freshman guard Trevor Keels. Fifth-year senior forward Theo John. Freshman guard Jaylen Blakes. Senior wing Joey Baker.
Yes, each of those four — and maybe even in the above order — is all but sure to see regular playing time next season. That is, they all should receive consistent minutes at least up until February or March, when Coach K, like clockwork, habitually cuts his primary bench options to two or three guys.
Fifth-year senior forward Bates Jones may carve out an on-court role as well.
Keels could serve as the do-anything sixth man, so to speak. John could serve as an enforcer to spell Mark Williams or Paolo Banchero at any given time. Blakes could serve as a reliable spark of overall energy, most notably via his anticipated high degree of defensive intensity. Baker could serve as a shooting specialist and seasoned leader.
And Jones might well surprise some folks as a solid backup at the four or five.
Beyond the projected starters here plus Keels, John, Blakes, Baker, and Jones, only two other players are on the Duke basketball roster in junior walk-ons Keenan Worthington and Michael Savarino. Barring a disaster when it comes to injuries or foul trouble, chances are neither Worthington nor Savarino will get any significant run.
OK, only 118 days of daydreaming remain until we find out the accuracy of all this.