How many of Duke basketball’s fresh faces will immediately become starters?
One thing’s for certain: the 2021-22 Duke basketball team will look considerably different than last season’s 13-11 bunch, who became the first Blue Devils to miss the NCAA Tournament since the 13-18 squad in 1994-95. In fact, with at least four freshmen plus two inbound transfers, more than half of the scholarship players on tap for next season will be new to the program.
That said, the roster-building process might not be 100 percent complete just yet for 74-year-old Mike Krzyzewski and his staff.
However, considering the 247Sports Crystal Ball still heavily favors Milwaukee to beat out Duke in the high-profile Patrick Baldwin Jr. sweepstakes — not to mention there are no other reported offers on the table to either high school seniors or transfers — we’ll just assume for now that only the following 10 Blue Devils will each have at least some chance to crack the regular rotation:
- Senior small forward Joey Baker
- Senior power forward Theo John (transfer from Marquette)
- Senior power forward Bates Jones (transfer from Davidson)
- Junior small forward Wendell Moore
- Sophomore point guard Jeremy Roach
- Sophomore center Mark Williams
- Freshman point guard Jaylen Blakes (four-star signee)
- Freshman shooting guard Trevor Keels (five-star signee)
- Freshman small forward AJ Griffin (five-star signee)
- Freshman power forward Paolo Banchero (five-star signee)
So which of these 10 guys are likely to comprise the next primary starting five in Durham? Well, let’s get started here with the predictions, one position at a time and beginning in the backcourt…
Predicting Duke basketball’s starter at point guard: Jeremy Roach
Sure, Jeremy Roach experienced his fair share of struggles as the freshman floor general in Durham last season. Those experiences, though, are what should give Duke basketball fans plenty of hope in regards to next season’s outlook for the former five-star recruit.
If nothing else, Roach proved durable as a rookie, appearing in all 24 games and drawing a starting nod 18 times. Furthermore, he never once displayed a dangerous level of discouragement despite the program’s unusually frequent losses and his own fairly frequent mistakes.
Averaging 8.7 points, 2.8 assists, 2.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals, and 2.0 turnovers in 27.4 minutes per game while hitting only 31.3 percent of his attempts from 3-point land and only 67.5 percent from the foul line, Roach undoubtedly came up short of his predecessor’s production on both ends of the floor.
But it’s OK if the 6-foot-1 Virginia native isn’t Tre Jones.
No, Jeremy Roach just needs to be the best possible version of Jeremy Roach, a persevering, multifaceted weapon who could persistently pose a problem to ACC foes if he spends the summer dedicated to improving both his shooting and decision-making.
After all, although this next face will be new to the program, it should help that it’s quite a familiar face to Roach…
Predicting Duke basketball’s starter at shooting guard: Trevor Keels
Two years ago, Trevor Keels shared the Paul VI (Va.) backcourt with Jeremy Roach. There’s no doubt that should help Keels in becoming acclimated to his new home. Of course, that fact should also benefit Roach and the 2021-22 Duke basketball team, in general, when the young Blue Devils take the floor against Kentucky in early November’s Champions Classic.
Yes, Keels is a notable sharpshooter from downtown who ranks No. 20 overall on the 247Sports 2021 Composite. On top of that, the 6-foot-5, 210-pound five-star, who announced his commitment in early April and then put his decision in ink this week, should serve as a reliable all-around talent on the perimeter.
In other words, seeing that his skillset includes the ability to act as a trustworthy secondary ballhandler, one can presume Mike Krzyzewski will have no qualms about potentially starting Keels alongside Roach on Day One.
On the other hand, Keels is sure to see a contest for this starting job at the two-spot, primarily from fellow freshman Jaylen Blakes, who is known as a dogged defender plus an overall ambitious competitor, in addition to returning small forwards Joey Baker and Wendell Moore.
Speaking of small forwards and competition, let’s see who should win the battle to start at the three-spot…
Predicting Duke basketball’s starter at small forward: AJ Griffin
Along with Trevor Keels and the next fella on this list, Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.) small forward AJ Griffin is a 2021 McDonald’s All-American. Actually, all five of these projected starters wear the “Burger Boy” tag from their prep days.
Obviously, that nugget in itself is a positive sign to some fans, albeit last season’s most common Duke basketball starting lineup of Jeremy Roach, DJ Steward, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, and Mark Williams held the same distinction.
Yet Griffin, who somehow recently fell from No. 7 to No. 12 on the 247Sports 2021 Composite, and the projected starter here at power forward are generally seen as future lottery picks. Meanwhile, there’s no indication either will come with as much baggage as Jalen Johnson, a five-star freshman forward last season who skipped town with six games to go on Duke’s schedule.
Griffin is a 6-foot-7, 220-pound chiseled athlete who appears to thrive the most as a slasher but should also provide the Blue Devils with a strong rebounding and defensive presence on the wing. Naturally, as the namesake son of former nine-year NBA veteran and current Toronto Raptors chief assistant Adrian Griffin, his inherent hoops acumen ought to come in handy as well.
In other words, while it’s probable that both Wendell Moore and Joey Baker will at least be regular contributors as veteran leaders, one has to wonder how either could edge out the more explosive and heralded Griffin for a starting job.
The same goes for those who are set to compete in practice with this next rookie…
Predicting Duke basketball’s starter at power forward: Paolo Banchero
A recent report from Jonathan Givony of ESPN claims that O’Dea (Wash.) power forward Paolo Banchero is now a 6-foot-11, 250-pound giant. Therefore, when taking into account the late growth spurt on top of the 18-year-old’s deep toolbox, it makes sense that Givony also bumped him to No. 1 over recent Gonzaga commit Chet Holmgren on his latest 2022 mock draft.
ALSO READ: Paolo Banchero has transformed into a sheer giant
As for the recent highlights (above) of the prized Blue Devil signee in action against other top-shelf prospects, well, plain and simple, they suggest that the Seattle native has a strong chance of becoming one of the all-time greatest one-and-done talents in Durham.
At No. 3 overall on the 247Sports 2021 Composite, Banchero’s 0.9994 composite rating is among the 10 highest in Duke basketball recruiting history.
Admittedly, a couple of the other dudes on that top 10 didn’t exactly pan out with respect to their lofty ratings. However, the bulk of them did. And in the case of Banchero, there is neither past drama to speak of nor injuries — knock on wood — that would signal any unreadiness on his part to shine at the college level.
Also, it can’t hurt that Banchero’s primary partner in crime down low as a Blue Devil looks to be a player who could become one of the program’s all-time most lethal 7-footers…
Predicting Duke basketball’s starter at center: Mark Williams
Toward the end of the largely discouraging 2020-21 Duke basketball campaign, Mark Williams clearly emerged as a potent force for the Blue Devils in the paint.
A keen shot-blocker. A positive on-court personality. A dependable finisher around the rim. The list goes on.
Not only did the 7-footer out of Virginia earn starting nods in each of the final 11 games, but between the last six outings, in particular, the former five-star recruit also managed some awfully promising averages:
- 16.7 points
- 7.8 rebounds
- 1.7 blocks
- 1.5 steals
- 74.6 field goal percentage
To the delight of Duke basketball fans everywhere, Williams unveiled on Thursday his decision to stick around for a second year in Durham.
With that news, assuming Mark Williams performs at or above the level he did down the stretch as a freshman last season and that Paolo Banchero matches or exceeds his own expectations, the Duke basketball frontcourt should wind up in the conversation as the most formidable in the country.
One obvious indicator of that potential prowess is the fact that these predicted starting roles for Williams and Banchero each come with a much higher level of certainty than the starting forecasts here for positions one through three.