Is Duke basketball at the back of the pack in its pursuit of Caleb Houstan?
It’s rare for a perceived frontrunner in a five-star race to unwillingly bow out before the home stretch. Yet that was the case for the North Carolina coaches this week as they saw their Duke basketball rivals perhaps swipe what might’ve otherwise been their seat among the four finalists for Montverde (Fla.) senior Caleb Houstan.
Plus, it’s rare for a prized prospect’s 247Sports Crystal Ball and Rivals FutureCast to both sit void of predictions the day after he has announced a shortlist. Yet that too was the case in the race for Houstan, a versatile, instinctive combo forward who ranks No. 8 overall on the 247Sports 2021 Composite.
Combining the above rarities, it’s obvious insiders don’t know much outside of what Houstan has said publicly and are timid to pick a winner between Alabama, Duke, Michigan, and Virginia. However, while uncertainty abounds regarding his destination, the 6-foot-8, 205-pound sniper noted to 247Sports insider Eric Bossi on Wednesday a near-certain timeframe for his decision:
“I would like to make a decision before my high school season starts, so that had a big impact on [naming a list]…That’s what I’m trying to go for. It’s not 100 percent, but I’m hoping to. I’m continuing to build relationships that I’ve already established. Now, I can dig a little deeper into how the schools can help me and how I can help them. That’s pretty much the two big things.”
So which of the four remaining contenders will ultimately receive Houstan’s help? Well, let’s look at what he’s recently said about each and what each program has to offer. And let’s do so while ranking them here in order of their chances to land the potential one-and-done lottery pick…
Sizing up finalists for Duke basketball target Caleb Houstan: Wolverines
What Caleb Houstan told 247Sports about Michigan: “[Head coach Juwan Howard] played 19 years in the NBA himself, and that can help me a lot. He’s somebody that has been there before and done it, so he knows a lot about the game, especially at the next level and what it takes. There’s a fit for me in terms of style of play. I fit in their halfcourt and transition of how they play, and the relationship with coaches is there.”
Michigan’s 2021 pledges (composite ranking):
- Four-star point guard Frankie Collins (No. 60)
- Four-star shooting guard Kobe Bufkin (No. 65)
- Four-star small forward Isaiah Barnes (No. 121)
- Three-star power forward Will Tschetter (No. 154)
Key expected departures for Michigan at or near Houstan’s position:
- Senior forward Isaiah Livers
- Sophomore wing Franz Wagner
The lowdown on where Michigan may stand: Considering the solid 2021 talents the Michigan staff has already reeled in, it’s not as if the Wolverines are desperate for Houstan. Nevertheless, assuming Wagner turns pro after the upcoming season, Houstan likely would slide right into a starting gig upon arrival in Ann Arbor. That said, it’s worth noting the only five-star to have ever committed to Howard was 2020 forward Isaiah Todd, who later opted for the G League instead.
What’s the chance Caleb Houstan chooses Michigan? 10 percent
Sizing up finalists for Duke basketball target Caleb Houstan: Blue Devils
What Caleb Houstan told 247Sports about Duke basketball: “The strong history of them getting guys to the league, they are a reputable program. Once again, the relationship with them is probably one of the biggest things. They believe they can get me better and prepare me to get to the next level. I’ve talked through the coaches about how much [RJ Barrett] loved it and how much it helped him prepare for going to the league.”
Duke basketball’s 2021 pledges (composite ranking):
- Five-star power forward Paolo Banchero (No. 3)
- Five-star small forward AJ Griffin (No. 6)
Key expected departures for Duke at or near Houstan’s position:
- Freshman combo forward Jalen Johnson
- Sophomore small forward Wendell Moore
- Sophomore power forward Matthew Hurt
- Senior power forward Patrick Tape
The lowdown on where Duke may stand with Houstan: Before this week, many saw Duke’s interest in Houstan as a backup to its pursuits of five-star small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr. (ranks No. 1) and five-star shooting guard Trevor Keels (No. 16). Now, maybe the staff just hopes to snag any two of the three and could even see Houstan joining Banchero, Baldwin Jr., and Griffin to form a dream cast of forwards, each able to play several positions. Yet that’s kinda hard to fathom.
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What’s the chance Caleb Houstan chooses Duke? 15 percent
Sizing up finalists for Duke basketball target Caleb Houstan: Cavaliers
What Caleb Houstan told 247Sports about Virginia: “I think the relationship with them stands out. They were one of the first programs to set up zooms with me during the quarantine period, and they were really recruiting me heavily. They really took a lot of interest in getting to know me as a player…They won the national championship the year before, and I could definitely see myself playing in that system.”
Virginia’s 2021 pledges (composite ranking):
- Four-star shooting guard Taine Murray (No. 82)
Key expected departures for Virginia at or near Houstan’s position:
- Senior forward Sam Hauser
The lowdown on where Virginia may stand with Houstan: It’s conceivable Houstan is actually favoring Virginia because he could come in right away and take the place of Hauser — a proven lights-out shooter who transferred to Virginia after three superb years at Marquette — as the top gun from deep for an ACC powerhouse. If he is willing to subscribe to the possession minimalism that Tony Bennett teaches his teams, then the Cavaliers might be a perfect match for Houstan.
What’s the chance Caleb Houstan chooses Virginia? 25 percent
Sizing up finalists for Duke basketball target Caleb Houstan: Crimson Tide
What Caleb Houstan told 247Sports about Alabama: “The style of play, I could definitely see myself in the way that they play as well as having the chance to develop, get good minutes, and have an impact from the start. I also have a great relationship with them. With them, they did a lot of video of how they would use me and compared me to some of their wings that can really shoot the ball. That helped…”
Alabama’s 2021 pledges (composite ranking):
- Five-star point guard JD Davison (No. 9)
- Four-star small forward Jusaun Holt (No. 124)
Key expected departures for Alabama at or near Houstan’s position:
- Senior guard John Petty
- Senior forward Alex Reese
- Senior forward Herb Jones
- Senior forward Jordan Bruner
The lowdown on where Alabama may stand with Houstan: Tide recruiters are on a hot streak, landing Davison and Holt in the past two weeks. Also, they’re favorites to add five-star center Charles Bediako (No. 23) to what looks to be a historic haul for Alabama. And with all the wings and forwards set to graduate, they should have ample room for Houstan. Add to that the high-volume offense in Tuscaloosa, and it seems he’d much enjoy the constant green lights downtown.
What’s the chance Caleb Houstan chooses Alabama? 50 percent
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting news and views.