A self-proclaimed Duke basketball clairvoyant has already released the names of the program’s next crop of starters.
Whether months beforehand, just before the first game, or at any point during the season, no writer or fan anywhere accurately identified the 2019-20 Duke basketball team’s full-time starting five.
That’s because there never was one. And that’s not because of bumps and bruises; no, the Blue Devils were lucky on the injury front. Instead, Mike Krzyzewski strategically coached the group to a 25-6 record, rolling out 14 different lineups for tipoffs along the way. Eleven players each saw at least one start. Each selection reflected the staff’s responses to hot hands and opponents’ strengths.
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Next season, there could be more of the same approach. But let’s assume for the purpose of this article that continuity in this regard will return. Or we could just say this isn’t so much a list of Dukies who look to begin all the games on the court but, rather, who will be the most frequent starters at their positions. Or you could say it’s the collection that will emerge by March (you get the point).
While Twitter prophets still argue what the roster makeup will be, Ball Durham holds the most wondrous tarot cards for foretelling one-and-done departures and whatnot (important note on that assertion: the word “tarot” comes from a word that was once used as a synonym for “foolish”). So here’s what’s in the cards, i.e., the 12-deep pool of scholarship Blue Devils to pick five from (if you don’t see a name you were hoping to below, sorry, it means this forecast tags him “NBA-bound”):
- Six freshmen: Jeremy Roach, D.J. Steward, Jalen Johnson, Jaemyn Brakefield, Henry Coleman, and Mark Williams
- Two sophomores: Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt
- One junior: Joey Baker
- Three seniors: Jordan Goldwire, Patrick Tape, and Mike Buckmire
OK, let’s get started with the starter at the one-spot and work our way to the surprise pick at the five (we’ll also dub the primary backup for each position as we go along):
- BEST FEATURES: ballhandling, facilitating, decision-making, instincts, composure, maturity, early commitment to Duke
- QUESTION MARKS: 3-point shooting, inexperience, past injury
Paul VI Catholic (Va.) five-star point guard Jeremy Roach knows the size of the shoes he signed up to fill next season. After all, when he kickstarted the 2020 Duke basketball recruiting class almost a year ago, his commitment came with the understanding that he’d be in line to take over for Tre Jones, who earned All-American honors as a sophomore and then announced last week his decision to turn pro.
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In many ways, Roach — who answered most of the concerns that stemmed from his 2018 torn ACL by stringing together a successful senior prep campaign — appears to operate in a similar fashion to Jones. He’s a pass-first floor general with reasonable quickness for the position. The sturdy McDonald’s All-American carries himself in a suave manner: relaxed facial expressions yet highly effective, assertive maneuvers.
Plus, the No. 21 overall prospect on the 247Sports 2020 Composite will begin his Blue Devil playing days with arguably a less jagged stroke from deep than his predecessor (though the successor is far from a lights-out net-whipper himself).
And if Roach does happen to falter early on in what is one of the most pressure-filled roles across all college sports — THE Duke basketball starting point guard — head coach Mike Krzyzewski can always call on the ever-improving seasoned vet who regularly started alongside Jones this past season…
Roach’s primary backup: JORDAN GOLDWIRE
Now, let’s move on to Roach’s fellow backcourt starter…
- BEST FEATURES: shooting, athleticism, length, aggression, takeover-mentality, crossover move, versatility
- QUESTION MARKS: inexperience, defense
Whitney Young (Ill.) five-star combo guard D.J. Steward should equate to everything Mike Krzyzewski seems to like in an off-guard starter: an accurate shooting stroke, a decisive trigger, a reliable set of handles, and a McDonald’s All-American. Actually, the jury on that “everything” part may remain out due to one lingering concern that 247Sports national basketball analyst Brian Snow once brought up:
“Defensively, [Steward] will never be great, but he is athletic enough and just big enough to defend either guard spot.”
Offensively, though, Steward began attracting a wealth of blueblood suitors last summer on the Nike EYBL circuit — and began boosting his composite ranking from No. 108 at the time to its current No. 24 spot — with one prolific outing after another against a slew of heralded guards.
Steward, who picked up a Duke basketball offer at the end of that week in July and then pledged allegiance to #TheBrotherhood two months later, also showcased his bucket-dropping superpowers during his senior season that followed. And he even did so against a rival he’ll face next season in North Carolina’s five-star signee at point guard, Caleb Love. Here’s how Ball Durham summed up that January performance:
“Not only did Steward drop 40 points — 14-for-20 shooting, including 5-for-11 from downtown, and a 7-for-7 clip from the charity stripe — to more than double up Love’s 19, but the 18-year-old from the Duke recruiting hotbed of Chicago took over down the stretch and hit the game-winning layup in the closing seconds to secure his squad’s 66-64 victory.”
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Yup, starting Day One in Durham, Steward’s scoring prowess should make it all but impossible for Coach K to put him anywhere but on the floor at the start of games.
Steward’s primary backup: JOEY BAKER
Now, let’s talk about the other starter out on the wing…
- BEST FEATURES: Length, strength, defensive instincts, point-forward abilities, poised demeanor, proven clutch performer, lifelong Duke fan
- QUESTION MARKS: 3-point shooting, decision-making when driving, turnovers
North Carolina native Wendell Moore had his ups and downs as a Duke basketball freshman this past season, finishing with averages of 7.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 0.9 steals while shooting 41.6 percent from the field (dinged by his 21.1 percent from beyond the arc).
The former four-star prep prospect — well, some recruiting sites gave him the fifth star — displayed his ultimate “up” inside the Dean E. Smith Center, where he permanently carved his name, face, and last-second putback into Tar Heels’ swelling memory bank of heartaches.
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However, Moore’s “down” moments came in the form of his frequent falling down, which occurred because he so often keeps his head down as he charges full-steam ahead into traffic. His average of 2.4 turnovers in only 24.0 minutes per game is a reflection of this blemish to his game.
On the other hand, when the season abruptly came to an end, Moore had just been getting his feet wet as a stellar pass-anticipator on defense, and his consistent minutes down the stretch suggested he’s a guy Mike Krzyzewski likes to have in the lineup (he started six of the last nine games). In short, he should serve as a mentor to all the fresh faces in the starting five next season.
Moore’s primary backup: JAEMYN BRAKEFIELD
Now, speaking of Duke basketball newbies, let’s look at the starting lineup’s interior pieces…
- BEST FEATURES: passing, alpha-mentality, versatility, size, smooth moves, court-awareness, early commitment to Duke
- QUESTION MARKS: 3-point shooting, inexperience
Nicolet (Wis.) five-star forward Jalen Johnson, who on July 4 became the second Duke basketball commit in the class, is the program’s highest-ranked recruit on the 247Sports 2020 Composite, where he currently sits No. 11 overall. And he’ll arrive in Durham with comparisons to Duke basketball legends Grant Hill and Shane Battier in tow because of his similar build in addition to his respect-commanding playing style.
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Here’s how Ball Durham recently summarized Johnson’s powerful presence and overall game — including the weaknesses — which he only had the chance to show off in eight games as a senior due to his mysterious no-show for IMG Academy prior to his transfer back to Nicolet:
“Across the eight games that Johnson did ultimately play for Nicolet, he averaged an impressive 25.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.9 steals, and 0.6 blocks while shooting 60.1 percent from the field. On the flipside, like so many elite Duke basketball freshmen in recent years, the Milwaukee native may want to refine the stroke he displayed this year both from beyond the arc (4-for-24, 16.7 percent) and from the charity stripe (28-for-52, 53.8 percent)…
“Percentages aside, Johnson, who seems on track to stay in college only one season, possesses the necessary versatile toolbox to lead from Day One as a Blue Devil.”
All in all, he is likely to be the top overall talent on the 2020-21 Duke basketball roster. And top talents, especially those who are fiercely competitive and boast an unteachable swagger, tend to start every game for whatever team they play for and at whatever position they are needed. Johnson, who has “small forward” next to his name on some sites, won’t be an exception.
Johnson’s primary backup: MATTHEW HURT
Now, let’s fill in the final piece — a more surprising one — to this starting-five puzzle…
- BEST FEATURES: Others-first mentality, intelligence, leadership, communication, mobility, rebounding instincts, strength, passion
- QUESTION MARKS: Shooting outside 10 feet, inexperience, post moves
The barrage of uplifting tweets, retweets, and the likes that Trinity Episcopal (Va.) four-star post player Henry Coleman regularly hits social media with is impressive and telling of his character. Rarely are the messages about himself, and even when they are, they are in someone else’s words with his sincerely gracious reply.
No, all his feel-good deeds — nor his role as the president of his student body — don’t necessarily mean Coleman, who holds a No. 44 composite ranking, will have what it takes to hold down the paint as a Duke basketball starting big man.
But all his growth across the past year — vertically, horizontally, and skill-wise — should mean he’s up for the task.
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Coleman has added an inch or two to his height. He’s added a lean 25 pounds or so to his frame. And he’s added a couple of weapons to his offensive arsenal, which already included a soft touch down low, an explosive bounce, and a keen eye for putbacks.
Granted, there are now a couple of 6-foot-10-and-up options Mike Krzyzewski is sure to at least consider to fill the five-spot in the starting lineup. Nevertheless, Coleman’s intangibles, including his workhorse motor, speak for themselves; in case they don’t, though, it’s worth checking out what one of his high school English teachers, Maria Bartz, said around the time he committed to Duke in September regarding his communication skills:
“First off, you hear Henry before you see him. He’ll come down the hallway, belting a country song, saying hello to any students and teachers he passes…He has a big personality, but it doesn’t overtake others because he won’t let it. He welcomes other people’s ideas, opinions, thoughts, and will make them comfortable to share because he is also putting himself out there with his own ideas.”
Sounds like a future Duke basketball treasure who won’t be afraid to do what Coach K appreciates most: talk on the floor. For those who need to see a different type of praise before believing the Richmond native is suited for the starting gig, here’s the observation another one of his English teachers, Betsy Reid, provided around the same time:
“I love that he’s always thinking about how one thing impacts another. Henry is an observer and a thinker, and he’s really comfortable sharing his thoughts with everyone.”
Simply put, it appears Coleman has the necessary sharp mind and focus to grasp Coach K’s total system before his big-bodied counterparts in Durham do next season. That sums up the thinking behind this outside-the-box pick to be Duke’s next starting center.
Coleman’s primary backups: MARK WILLIAMS and PATRICK TAPE
So there you have it: a fast, aggressive, talented starting five that includes loads of facilitators. And there are reasons to believe the weaknesses wouldn’t be detrimental: 73-year-old Coach K’s 40 years on the job balances out the group’s youth, today’s game allows for smaller lineups to prosper, and a couple of 3-point snipers on the bench (Matthew Hurt and Joey Baker) can sub in at any time to fix any shooting woes.
As for finding out the accuracy of this projection, we’ll just have to wait until Duke — likely a preseason top 10 team — tips off its season on Nov. 10 against Michigan State at the Champions Classic from Chicago’s United Center.
Only 229 days left — relax, it’s not as long as it looks, and it’ll be here before you know it — until the start of yet another spellbinding Duke basketball quest.
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, and opinions regarding all things Duke basketball.