The promising 2020-2021 Duke basketball team: An early look

Rick Heidrick

Duke basketball (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The 2020-21 season will mark the return of the juggernauts, but where will the Duke basketball program stand amongst them?

As the 2019-2020 college basketball season abruptly and unfortunately came to a close last week, due to the pandemic known as COVID-19, it has forced us to turn our attention to the prospective power of the 2020-2021 Duke basketball team.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: Just after the publishing of this article, 247Sports insider Evan Daniels reported via tweet that Duke basketball junior guard Alex O’Connell has decided to transfer. In other words, please take that into consideration when reading this article.

As with most years in the one-and-done era (2006-present), fans of the Duke Blue Devils will have to say early goodbyes to primetime performers and welcome in a new class of super-frosh.

The positives, depending on your point of view and fan-hood, is that next season will mark the return of the juggernauts in the college basketball universe. Dependent on early departures and late additions, teams like Gonzaga, Baylor, Virginia, Kentucky, Creighton, Florida State, and Duke are all shaping up to have rather dominant squads next season.

The reason for this “return to normalcy” is three-fold:

The National Basketball Association’s new Early Entry legislation last year enabled a multitude of underclassmen to test the waters. Unfortunately, a great deal of them kept their name in the draft, even without an NBA Combine invite, and many were picked in the second round or went undrafted. Adding to this is the NBA’s recent shutdown due to COVID-19, which will no doubt affect the “testing the waters” process by many underclassmen.
The 2019 recruiting class was inherently top-heavy and simply not as talented as the 2018 class.
High school rankings are one thing, but they are insignificant once the ball hits the hardwood. Unfortunately, a fair share of the members in the 2019 class had under-performing seasons compared to their expectations.

In laymen’s terms, the noticeable talent gap between the 2018 and 2019 classes will have a corresponding effect on the 2020 season, as some of the individuals from the prior class who initially thought that they would be ready to make the leap to the NBA are no longer ready. Mix in enough returnees with upperclassmen, and we’ll have a season that is more comparable to the Year of the Zion than the one that we witnessed this past year.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but where does Duke basketball lie in all of this? Next to Kentucky and perhaps Florida State, the Blue Devils have the highest variance for next season, and I mean that completely in the sense of roster construction. Let’s get started!

What do we know right now?

We know that the NCAA allows 13 scholarships for Division I basketball athletes per team, per year. For the 2019-2020 Duke basketball team, head coach Mike Krzyzewski put the following athletes under scholarship for the year:

That is only twelve. However, Buckmire, who is majoring in Biology and is one of the smartest individuals on the team, was just placed on scholarship for this past season. Logically, if Coach K needs an additional scholarship, one would think he’d pull back that one.

Who’s graduating?

Justin Robinson
Javin DeLaurier
Jack White

So if we are strictly talking about available scholarships, that means Duke has eight scholarship players for next season if we remove Robinson, DeLaurier, White, and Buckmire, before factoring in any early departures or the incoming recruiting class.

Duke has six incoming recruits thus far, not including alleged interest in Harvard graduate transfer Seth Towns, Yale graduate transfer Jordan Bruner, and Colombia graduate transfer Patrick Tape. So if you take a conservative approach and expect the staff to walk into next season with just the six new players from the 2020 class, that means Duke needs at the very minimum for one player from this year’s team to make an early departure for the NBA to make the scholarships work.

Who’s leaving early and who’s possibly staying?

Prior to this week, really everybody on the roster except Goldwire could have been realistically placed in the “uncertain” territory for next season. Baker cleared things up a touch when he declared the other day via his Instagram that he will be returning to Durham for Year 3. So right now there are two guaranteed returnees. The remaining are all up in the air for various reasons.

ESPN Draft Express Prospect Rankings:

#28 Vernon Carey Jr.
#33 Tre Jones
#50 Cassius Stanley
#65 Wendell Moore
#76 Matthew Hurt

ESPN Draft Express Mock Draft:

#29 Vernon Carey Jr. (Los Angeles Lakers)
#30 Tre Jones (Boston Celtics)
#49 Cassius Stanley (Oklahoma City Thunder)

ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony currently only has Carey Jr., Jones, and Stanley getting drafted. Moore’s game translates well to the NBA; however, he was always projected as more of a multi-year player.

Hurt’s placement is quite interesting, considering the skillset that he brings to the table, something that many NBA franchises covet.

Prior to the start of the season, Hurt was a borderline lottery pick; however, his shortcomings on defense and limitations due to his lanky frame caught up to him. Despite the rumblings, it seems rather illogical for him to transfer out of Duke, be forced to sit out a year, and put his NBA aspirations on hold.

Likely, he will either declare or return to Duke and attempt to boost his draft stock once again. The only aspect really working against Hurt declaring right now is the global pandemic, as it has all but eliminated the possibility for underclassmen to individually work out for teams and maybe even partake in the NBA Draft Combine.

Let’s move on to the new Duke basketball faces…

Who’s arriving in Durham?

As is custom, the Duke basketball coaches are bringing in an absolutely loaded class for the 2020-2021 season. Whereas Kentucky’s class is more wing-heavy, and North Carolina’s class is more top-heavy, Duke’s incoming class is unquestionably one of the more balanced recruiting classes we have seen in some time.

247Sports Composite Basketball Rankings for the 2020 Class:

Jalen Johnson – 6-foot-8, 215 pounds
- #11 overall recruit nationally; #3 small forward
Jeremy Roach – 6-foot-2, 180 pounds
- #21 overall recruit nationally; #4 point guard
- DJ Steward – 6-foot-3, 165 pounds
  - #24 overall recruit nationally; #5 combo guard
  - Mark Williams – 7-foot, 225 pounds
    - #29 overall recruit nationally; #5 center
    - Jaemyn Brakefield – 6-foot-8, 210 pounds
      - #37 overall recruit nationally; #6 power forward
      - Henry Coleman – 6-foot-8, 240 pounds
        
        #44 overall recruit nationally; #7 power forward
        What it lacks in pure NBA phenom talent — like the 2018 recruiting class with Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish — it makes up for with a robust combination of skills from six players all ranked within the top 45 in the country.
        ALSO READ: The 100 greatest Blue Devils under Coach K
        Johnson is probably the most advanced offensive player in the class. Roach is a prototypical lead guard, likened to NBA star Kyle Lowry. Steward is a walking bucket. Williams is a block machine and lob menace. Brakefield is a smooth athlete and one of the better shooters at his position. Coleman is a physical anomaly, who is built like a linebacker and plays an extremely physical style of ball.
        I should immediately retract my statement that it lacks NBA phenom talent. Johnson might just be the best player in his whole high school recruiting class. The only reason he’s currently ranked so low is that he missed most of his senior basketball season due to transferring from IMG Academy back to Nicolet High School.
        Johnson is a walking bucket, likened to NBA star Paul George by 247Sports experts; however, I view him more as a Jayson Tatum type of Duke basketball player (albeit I believe Tatum has a smoother jump shot).
        Now, let’s look at all the pieces as a Duke basketball unit…
        Duke basketball forward Joey Baker (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
        Projected depth chart (no particular order)
        
        Point guard: Jeremy Roach, Jordan Goldwire
        
        Shooting guard: DJ Steward, Alex O’Connell
        
        Small forward: Jalen Johnson, Wendell Moore, Joey Baker
        
        Power forward: Matthew Hurt, Jaemyn Brakefield, Henry Coleman
        
        Center: Mark Williams
        
        I think if we air on the side of realism, Duke basketball underclassmen Tre Jones, Vernon Carey Jr., and Cassius Stanley are all gone. I think Carey Jr. has more to work on than the other two, specifically with his defense and jump shot, but the accolades that he accrued after just one season in college might push him to make that leap. The kid was absolutely dominant and would likely be drafted within the top five or 10 most years if the NBA wasn’t so perimeter-oriented now.
        Stanley needs to develop a killer instinct, but he showed great potential with his perimeter defense and shot this season — and that’s not even mentioning his off-the-charts athleticism. A team will draft him based on potential alone, and his advanced age for his class (he’s already 20) makes it even more likely.
        ALSO READ: Plea for Cassius Stanley to tweet much more often
        Jones actually just officially declared for the NBA Draft earlier today, so he is gone, and that wraps up an incredible two years for that young man. He improved in all areas that NBA scouts questioned after last season, so it seems like the right move from a basketball sense. His mid-range shot is absolutely deadly, plus he upped his 3-point percentage by 10 percentage points and became the alpha for Duke. Some team will likely select him in the 15-25 range.
        To be vividly clear, both Carey Jr. and Stanley could return to Duke for another season (however unlikely), and I would not be surprised whatsoever. They each have aspects in their games that they could work on. The COVID-19 pandemic could also play a factor in the decisions, as there will not be much of an in-person review process of players leading up to the draft, which may encourage more individuals to stay another year.
        Moore has already hinted at staying, and as I said before, he was always projected to be more of a multi-year guy. He needs to continue to work on his shot, decision-making, and handle.
        ALSO READ: Duke’s five most heartwarming Dean Dome wins
        Hurt could very easily leave and likely get drafted in the second round, but another year in college would be worthwhile, and transferring and having to sit out really doesn’t make any sense.
        O’Connell could go the graduate transfer route, but I don’t see it happening. He has more to gain, as he has a higher likelihood of winning a conference title and national championship with this Duke basketball team than going somewhere else to chase the lion’s share of touches.
        Finally, let’s sum it all up with a look at what’s in store…
        Duke basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
        Where do things stand?
        Based on the previous slide, the projected depth chart at this very second would have the Duke basketball staff only utilizing 11 scholarships for next season (with Vernon Carey Jr, Tre Jones, and Cassius Stanley going pro). That obviously opens the door to a number of different things, including potential graduate transfer additions or even a reclass from a 2021 recruit like Jonathan Kuminga.
        An important thing to remember is that despite Duke basketball fans’ constant craving for each incoming freshman or each rising junior or senior to be the next big thing, not all of them are going to turn into stars. Part of what makes the very best teams so good is that each player excels in his own role. If each player stars in his specified role, Duke will be among the best teams in the country like usual.
        With that said, even if we take an extremely conservative approach to who’s staying and who’s leaving, Duke again lines up to be one of the top five teams in the country. There’s really no other way to spin that; so if you find one out there where Duke is not listed in the top five, go ahead and toss that one in the trash.
        The Blue Devils won’t have the inside-out offense that they had this year with Jones and Carey Jr., but they’ll have shooters that will space the floor, they will have certified bucket-getters in DJ Steward and Jalen Johnson, and they will largely operate with a four-out, one-in type of philosophy. The combo of Jeremy Roach and Jordan Goldwire in the backcourt should have fans drooling defensively.
        ALSO READ: Predicting Duke’s top scorer next season
        All that being said, what it takes for a season to turn from a “contending” one to a “dominant” one often revolves around players returning. If the Duke basketball coaches were to get lucky and snare another season out of the likes of Stanley or Carey Jr., you are then talking about the clear-as-day favorite for the 2021 National Championship.
        We’ll have to wait to see how things shake out, but Duke basketball fans should be awfully excited about the upcoming season!
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        Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, and opinions regarding all things Duke basketball: past, present, future, and in the NBA.