Never in Duke basketball history has the question of who stays and who goes been quite as difficult to answer as it is this year.
It’s here! The best month in the business and most wonderful time of the year (sorry, Christmas, but you don’t have a Selection Show). That magical period when Margaret from Accounting out-brackets Joe Lunardi, every bubble-team coach prepares a filibuster speech, and suddenly sick employees prepare to cost Corporate America $6.3 billion (yes, billion with a “b”).
I’m sure my fellow Ball Durham writers are as excited as I am to predict and preview Duke’s NCAA Tournament draw. Unfortunately, my colleagues and I find ourselves in a bit of a professional quandary. We’re still four days from Duke’s first ACC Tournament game and 11 or 12 days from Duke’s First Round NCAA Tournament opener, and I am more jittery than my wife at a spider farm.
With all this time and all this weird energy, I’ve decided to be productive and make some predictions on whether individual members of our tournament-bound Blue Devils will be returning to Cameron Indoor Stadium’s warm embrace next season.
To be clear, I’m not exactly predicting WHERE the players are going, I’m merely predicting IF the players are going. To clarify further, I’m not including next year’s freshmen, as they will almost certainly be on campus come summertime. I’m placing the players in groups, which are determined by my percentage of confidence that they will leave.
There have been similar articles written on this site, and you can bet there will be more, but I have the laptop and you don’t. Without further ado, let’s begin with those who definitely won’t be in Durham next season…
100 percent, no chance to return
F- Justin Robinson (Gr)
F- Jack White (Sr)
F- Javin DeLaurier (Sr)
This is the easiest one I’ll do yet as all three of these gentlemen have reached the end of their eligibility. I thank Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, and Justin Robinson for their service and am especially excited to see how the story of the fifth-year senior unfolds in March.
Following Robinson’s winning ways in an 89-76 victory at home over North Carolina on Saturday night (13 points, six rebounds, four blocks, three assists, and a steal after living at the end of the bench for the first 27 games of this season and all of his past four years as a Blue Devil), Duke basketball head coach Mike Krzyzewski expressed similar excitement and said of his story, “It’s better than ‘Rudy.'”
Now, this isn’t to say Robinson won’t soon be back on the Duke bench in another role. Here’s a vision Krzyzewski gave about the 23-year-old two weeks ago:
“He’s a young man I’d like to see stay around here in coaching in some way. I know if any of my guys got jobs or whatever, JRob’s a guy that really understands the game, and in addition to understanding the game, he understands people. Every time JRob talks in a practice, individually or collectively, people listen to him.
“He runs our scout team, so that’s every game you’re putting in a new offense, he knows everything.”
OK, now for the one guy who is all but 100 percent to leave after this season…
99 percent, almost certain to leave
C- Vernon Carey Jr. (Fr)
It would take a divine miracle to get this young man to come back.
Duke basketball freshman big man Vernon Carey Jr. has exceeded even my wildest expectations this year by averaging 17.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. On Saturday night, he made two skilled UNC post players, Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks, look absolutely foolish at times and took the whole league to task in most matchups this season.
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On Monday, Carey Jr. picked up a couple of honors for his dominant efforts. In addition to becoming the 12th Blue Devil in history to win ACC Freshman of the Year, he landed on the All-ACC First Team.
Success comes at a cost, though, as NBA scouts will undoubtedly drool over the 6-foot-10, 270-pound Florida native’s size, skill, and attitude. Every mock draft out there right now has Carey Jr. in the first round, and as of late, his name is popping up more and more as a potential 2020 lottery pick.
Now, let’s look at a pair of Blue Devils whose departure seems a touch less certain…
90 percent, pretty sure to bolt but…
G- Tre Jones (So)
G- Cassius Stanley (Fr)
These two guys should certainly go, but there is a slim chance that they may want to keep wearing the Blue.
Duke basketball sophomore point guard Tre Jones has been nothing short of spectacular this year. He not only averages 16.2 points and 6.4 assists but is the emotional rock of the team.
Jones, who on Monday became the 18th Blue Devil in history to earn the honor as ACC Player of the Year, is clearly the most important player going forward. And his improvement in offense and leadership from last year should get him drafted either late in the first round or early in the second.
Freshman shooting guard Cassius Stanley, meanwhile, has spent the majority of the year flip-flopping from consistent scorer to frustrated bench mainstay. The Los Angeles native, who joined Vernon Carey Jr. on the All-ACC Freshman Team on Monday, has seemed to come on lately, though, and become the third option this team needs.
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Stanley’s ability to strike fear in defenses looking to avoid a life on a poster, his suddenly dependable 3-point stroke, and his age (20) all point to him exiting Duke early for the professional ranks.
As for the truly iffy 2020-21 Duke basketball returnees…
50 percent, your guess is as good as mine
F- Joey Baker (So)
F- Wendell Moore (Fr)
F- Matthew Hurt (Fr)
The futures of these Duke basketball players almost certainly depend upon what they do in March. While some have perhaps sealed their fate, some of these guys can make an impression on NBA general managers and possibly other schools.
Sophomore Joey Baker (stop laughing, I don’t think he’s going pro either) started the season as Duke’s most reliable perimeter weapon, but inconsistent shooting and the emergence of other players has doomed the forward to the pine.
I don’t see Baker going pro, but I have this nagging feeling he is going to transfer. That feeling has nothing to do with him loving or hating Duke; it’s a simple realization that the wing is going to be absolutely stacked next year (2020 signee Jalen Johnson is a minute-taking monster).
Freshman Wendell Moore is a mystery wrapped inside of an enigma this year. Sometimes, he looks like a lost puppy. Other times, he looks like a young Thomas Hill getting on the offensive glass and locking down the opponent’s wing.
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Moore is only averaging 7.4 points a game, though, and my heart tells me he comes back to improve his shot. But he does have NBA size, and the incoming talent may scare him off as well.
Fellow freshman Matthew Hurt used to belong in the 90 percent category and started the year looking like the stretch-four pro scouts sell their firstborns for with his length and jump-shooting ability.
Time has not been kind to Hurt, though, and he has regressed to mostly a bench player, which leads me to think he will be back for his sophomore campaign. We do, however, have to remember that Hurt was once a top 10 recruit in high school, and he might go Nassir Little on us and decide to bolt.
Now, here’s a pair who will more than likely stay put…
30 percent, stranger things have happened
G- Jordan Goldwire (Jr)
G- Alex O’Connell (Jr)
I’m fairly certain these troops will live to fight another Duke day, but you have to account for variable change.
Remember Taylor King? Me neither, and I know that came out of nowhere, but it has bearing on my reasoning here. King left the Duke basketball program in 2008 after one season, and I honestly can’t remember why.
Junior guards Jordan Goldwire and Alex O’Connell are almost certainly coming back, but anything from promised playing time somewhere else, incoming talent, or the alignment of Mars and Durham may deliver these kids elsewhere.
Goldwire HAS to be in the conversation for Most Improved Player in the ACC (nope, nevermind, he somehow received ZERO votes). His defense is a study in chaos and footwork, and he essentially turns himself into a shutdown cornerback, putting his man on an island. His shooting and handles have also improved, which makes me think he will have a spot as a senior next year regardless of who Duke brings in. But again, weird happens.
O’Connell probably has the purest shooting stroke on the team (though his percentage this season doesn’t show it). And earlier in the season, he was a dependable role player. Some nights, you could just tell the ball was going in right off his hand like J.J. Redick or Trajan Langdon.
But O’Connell’s minutes have been reduced to 13.3 a game, and his lack of development should keep him in Cameron Indoor Stadium next season, but this one could be the random transfer (doubt it).
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Finally, it’s time for the guys you are definitely not going to see take off the Duke basketball jersey for the last time whenever this season ends…
Zero percent, so save them a locker, Coach K
G- Mike Buckmire (Jr)
G- Michael Savarino (Fr)
F- Keenan Worthington (Fr)
We shall see you boys next year!
Not a lot of mystery here, as Duke basketball freshmen Keenan Worthington and Michael Savarino (Mike Krzyzewski’s grandson) are walk-ons who are redshirting this season. In other words, they are likely to be on the bench for years to come.
Junior guard Mike Buckmire is a former walk-on who earned his scholarship for this season, but with the expected number of guys back, it will be interesting to see if the Pennsylvania native will have to give back his scholarship for his senior campaign. Regardless of any scholarship situation, Buckmire is easily the most anticipated locker room show around.
And for those Duke basketball fans who are out of the loop when it comes to recruiting, here’s who looks to be coming in to join Buckmire, Worthington, Savarino, and whoever else decides to be among the returning group of 2020-21 Blue Devils.
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more updates, analyses, and opinions regarding all things Duke basketball: past, present, future, and in the NBA.