Closer looks at the collection of Duke basketball offers, commits, and potential returnees begin to debunk the theory that the 2020 and 2021 classes each must be far deeper than average.
First, let’s examine the 2020 Duke basketball recruiting efforts in order to get a clearer picture of what the staff must currently deem an adequate goal in terms of the final number of signees.
The obvious explanation for why Mike Krzyzewski has noticeably taken his foot off the pedal a bit when it comes extending offers to 2020 prospects is that his class already consists of three five-stars — point guard Jeremy Roach, small forward Jalen Johnson, and combo guard D.J. Steward — in addition to four-star power forward Henry Coleman.
Some would argue, though, that while impressive, adding last week’s commitment from Coleman to what is more than a quarter of the nation’s 11 committed five-stars at the moment — Kentucky and UNC are the only schools with exactly two — was both necessary and still not enough to replace three outgoing seniors and early departures from up to five underclassmen.
Deciphering Duke’s moves on the recruiting trail, however, tells a slightly different story than the one coming from those fans who just assume — justifiably so when considering the program’s recent history — that a handful of underclassmen will leave Durham for the NBA each and every season.
The three-deep offer list (five-star wing Ziaire Williams plus four-star centers Mark Williams and Hunter Dickinson, who picked up his Duke offer last week) on top of the 247Sports Crystal Ball pegging the Blue Devils to land only one — Mark Williams — says the coaches see a strong possibility of several top underclassmen returning for another season. One could assume they hope to snag one or two of the above three and then tie a bow on their 2020 class (unless a certain 2021 phenom opts to reclass…more on that to come).
Likewise, the total picture from mock drafts shows this not-so-one-and-done conclusion. In addition to sophomore point guard Tre Jones, the four scholarship freshmen (center Vernon Carey Jr., power forward Matthew Hurt, small forward Wendell Moore, and shooting guard Cassius Stanley) are absent on at least one mock draft apiece. None are anywhere close to what any expert prognosticator would call a surefire lottery pick.
So it seems the Duke basketball recruiting machine is only trying to manufacture a 2020 class five or six deep rather than the seven or eight many folks expect, meaning up to three of the five aforementioned underclassmen — as well as sophomore forward Joey Baker plus junior guards Alex O’Connell and Jordan Goldwire — may very well hold off on becoming professionals for a year or more.
No issue here with that — though it would take some getting used to after the one-and-done explosion that fans have recently lived through.
Now, while we’re on the subject, let’s take a glance at what Duke’s 2021 pursuits suggest in regards to the staff’s expected number of more distant needs…
What Duke’s 2021 moves reveal…
The most telling observation from the Duke basketball staff’s 2021 offer sheet — no commits to date — is the lack of a true point guard. Typically, when Krzyzewski anticipates having to replace the starter at the one-spot with a freshman, he picks out his top choice early on in the recruiting cycle and makes him a top priority.
So from the looks of it, Coach K and his cohorts must envision Roach sticking around for his sophomore season (2021-22) after likely replacing Jones as the backcourt leader next year — assuming Jones cashes in his talents following his upcoming sophomore campaign.
The next sight that jumps off the page about Duke’s 2021 efforts is the offer to the top prospect on the 247Sports 2021 Composite, small forward Jonathan Kuminga. Not only does the Crystal Ball predict the five-star phenom to spend his college days in Durham — no way he would stay more than a year — but the buzz about his potential reclass to 2020 keeps building (even more so now that the Congo native has not yet shut down the idea during interviews).
ALSO READ: Duke target Jonathan Kuminga responds to reclass question
As for the other four 2021 talents holding Duke basketball offers, they are all five-stars: small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., small forward A.J. Griffin, shooting guard Max Christie, and power forward Paolo Banchero. Notice there are no are centers on the list.
The previous sentence ought to be encouraging for those fans who are begging for any sign of a sharp decline to the turnover rate among the program’s post players. Evidently, any thoughts the staff may have about unlikely one-and-done college careers from Coleman and Mark Williams — assuming the latter commits — aren’t strong enough at the moment to spur heavy pursuits of any 2021 big men.
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Furthermore, updates about Duke basketball coaches taking trips to check in on all the above 2021 targets aren’t all that frequent relative to the seemingly daily trips from the rival recruiting machine at Kentucky. In other words, Coach K may have decided to hold back a touch on the 2021 trail after adding up all the possible pieces already in place for the 2021-22 season.
Theoretically — but first assuming there is no way Jones, Carey Jr., Hurt, nor Johnson will be around for what would be their senior, junior, junior, and sophomore campaigns, respectively — the roster could include eight players, and all would have ranked among the top 40 in their respective high school classes.
Such a roster would be as follows: Baker as a senior; Moore and Stanley as juniors; Roach, Steward, and Coleman as sophomores, and the same for Mark Williams and Dickinson should they both commit to Duke. On paper, this looks like a pretty sweet team even without any five-star pieces out of the 2021 class.
ALSO READ: Three Duke freshmen likely to become sophomores
But even if a few of the above guys aren’t at Duke by then, the 2021 class still may only need to include two or three studs and a couple of three- or four-star longterm projects.
All in all, it wouldn’t be a shock if there is soon — if not already — a significant dip in the workload from Coach K and his recruiting empire, potentially offering a preview of the era to follow the expected end to the one-and-done rule, which is likely to occur just in time to apply to the 2022 class.
Or maybe time will prove all the conjectures in this article to just be wishful thinking; even so, a little optimism from time to time, even when borderline unrealistic, is healthy for any Duke basketball fan.
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting updates, analyses, opinions, and predictions.