With no surefire stud likely to return to Durham next season and only one 2019 commitment in the bag, the 2019-20 Duke basketball roster still needs some serious attention.
As long as the Duke basketball coaches attract one-and-done prospects, reloading will continue to be a necessity from one season to the next. And that will be the case once again after the upcoming season.
Of the 12 scholarship players on the current roster, senior center Antonio Vrankovic will automatically leave due to the expiration of his eligibility. Three other automatic departures, barring an unforeseen miracle, include freshmen Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and Cam Reddish (all predicted to be high lottery picks in the 2019 NBA Draft).
Other losses could include someone who feels compelled to transfer and freshman Tre Jones — though based on his play in the Blue-White scrimmage and one exhibition game, he seems to be at least a two-year college player.
This equates to eight players, at the max, returning to next year’s squad. That number could be as low as six if Jones leaves for the NBA and one player transfers. Now, adding in the lone 2019 commitment, five-star forward Wendell Moore, that leaves the Blue Devils with anywhere from seven to nine players to comprise its 2019-20 roster.
And that’s certainly not enough.
So, at a minimum, head coach Mike Krzyzewski and his staff will need to pick up two more commitments. Again, that’s at the bare minimum. To be safe, they will need three. To be a legitimate contender for a title if Jones leaves, they may need four.
Is four even possible?
It is, and they could all be five-star prospects ranked in the top six of the 247Sports Composite, although that best-case scenario looks highly unlikely at the moment. What looks to be more realistic is that Coach K and Co. add one or two of their current five-star targets and possibly their lone four-star target. And that means at least another offer or two may need to be made.
The next slide contains a brief summary of the recruitment of each of the current targets and the chance that the Blue Devils have to snag them, according to the 247Sports Crystal Ball.
Vernon Carey Jr.
Summary: Carey Jr., a 6-foot-10, 275-pound center ranked No. 2 on the composite rankings, visited Duke last weekend and attended Countdown to Craziness. He still has two official visits remaining — to Miami this weekend and to UNC the following weekend — and is eyeing a decision in November. The Florida native probably represents the Blue Devils’ best chance to land a top-10 recruit.
Crystal Ball: 50 percent for Duke
Cole Anthony
Summary: Anthony, a 6-foot-3, 185-pound combo guard ranked No. 3 on the composite rankings, has taken and scheduled visits, but not to Duke. Nearly two weeks ago, he tweeted that he had cut his list of 12 schools to an unspecified number, but he has yet to follow up on that tweet with the actual list. Although Duke was once the favorite, it now looks as if he is more likely to become a Tar Heel.
Crystal Ball: 33 percent for Duke
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Isaiah Stewart
Summary: Stewart, a 6-foot-9, 245-pound center ranked No. 5 on the composite rankings, is still allowed to take one more official visit; there was speculation earlier this week that he may visit Duke this weekend, but that has yet to be confirmed. The Blue Devils were once considered the favorite to land him, but that no longer appears to be the case.
Crystal Ball: 33 percent for Duke
Matthew Hurt
Summary: Hurt, a 6-foot-9, 215-pound forward ranked No. 6 on the composite rankings, has no official list, no planned official visits, and no intention to make a final decision until the spring. Coach K, along with other coaches from several other powerhouse programs, visited him and his family in their home at the beginning of September.
Crystal Ball: Zero percent for Duke
Boogie Ellis
Summary: Ellis, a 6-foot-2, 175-pound combo guard ranked No. 35 on the composite rankings, will be taking his official visit this weekend to Duke. Although the Blue Devils were the last to extend an offer to the four-star prospect, they may have entered the race in time to give themselves a serious shot. Considering all five of his official visits will be wrapped up after this weekend, expect him to announce his final choice sometime before the early signing period (Nov. 14-21).
Crystal Ball: Zero percent for Duke
Conclusion
Based on the Crystal Ball and the current roster outlook for the 2019-20 season, it looks like some more offers probably need to be made. The sooner the better.
Stay tuned to Ball Durham for more Duke basketball recruiting updates, analysis, opinions, and predictions.