The old saying, Duke doesn’t rebuild, they reload, is absolutely true. Despite losing five senior starters over the last two years, the Blue Devils will once again be locked in the top-10 in all 2011-2012 preseason polls.

Having said that, Duke’s roster is in flux. The coaching staff has a lot to learn over the summer before a five-man starting unit can be picked. Of course the one position that seems to be the most baffling is also the most important…point guard.

Who will run the point guard for Duke? 

Except for 11 games last year, it seems like this is a question we’ve been asking a lot over the years, at least since Jason Williams left school a decade ago (has it really been a decade?). Of course in the years prior to Kyrie Irving, the question was being asked because the Blue Devils simply didn’t have a great point guard.

While this year’s roster may not have a “great” point guard yet, this team does have plenty of good options. Let’s look at them.

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No. 1 KYRIE IRVING, CLEVELAND

While Irving doesn’t get the same amount of props as other first-picked point guards like Derrick Rose and John Wall, it was clear that the Cavaliers had to take him. No offense to Derrick Williams who wanted desperately to be the top pick, but the NBA is a point guard league right now.

Kyrie is a great shooter, great ball handler and a finisher. He can drive to the rim with both his left and right hands. He will make his teammates better. As long as he stays healthy, in shape and off motorcycles, he’s going to be an elite PG in this league for a long time.

Looking to next season, Irving should start right away, although I’m not sure how Cleveland will work it out with Baron Davis. Maybe they move Davis to the 2-spot? I don’t know. I just know Baron is not the future and I suspect he’ll be gone before the 2012-2013 season starts.

Also, Irving will need to be patient. This is not going to be like joining Duke. The Cavaliers are a few years away from competing. Let’s face it, this team was NOT GOOD in the post-LeBron era. I would argue that they still have three starters (Anthony Parker, Ryan Hollins and Alonzo Gee) who shouldn’t be starters at this level.

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Here you will find my predictions for where Duke Blue Devils (Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith), along with other ACC players.

Enjoy.

UPDATE: 33rd DETROIT – Kyle Singler (Duke)
Sorry, but I would have never predicted this. Not in a million years. No one can question his heart, but he needs to be a better scorer.

END OF FIRST ROUND:

30th CHICAGO – Jimmy Butler (Marquette)
Great kid, but I don’t understand why he goes ahead of Singler. Am I starting to sound like a bitter Duke fan? He’s everything Kyle is, except he doesn’t shoot the three as well and he doesn’t rebound as well. At best, he’s a bit better at putting the ball on the floor and creating his own shot.

29th SAN ANTONIO – Cory Joseph (Texas)
Will back up Tony Parker for the Spurs. He should keep a close eye on any girlfriend he brings along with him.

28th CHICAGO/TRADED TO MINNESOTA/TRADED TO MIAMI – Norris Coles.
Minnesota really confuses me. Coles is a good player, solid scorer, but a litte small.

27th NEW JERSEY/TRADED TO BOSTON – JaJaun Johnson (Purdue)
Clearly Boston is regretting that Kendrick Perkins trade. Time to make up for it.

26th DALLAS – Jordan Hamilton (Texas)
Amazing, the Longhorns get three players taken in the first round, yet where did they fall in the tournament. Is Rick Barnes the worst coach in basketball?

25th BOSTON/TRADED TO NEW JERSEY – Marshon Brooks (Providence)
Good pick. I can’t believe he fell this far. He’s a solid scorer. A shooting guard who can play like a point guard.

24th OKLAHOMA CITY – Reggie Jackson (Boston College)
He’s good. He’s quick. He’s long. Where does he fit on a team with Westbrook running the show and Maynor as well? We’ll see.

23rd MINNESOTA (FROM HOUSTON): Nikola Mirotic (Montenegro)
We’ll see you in four years.

22nd DENVER – Kenneth Faried (Morehead State)
Great rebounder, amazing motor. He will fit perfectly in Denver’s system. Great pick. Not a star, but an ultimate role player.

21st PORTLAND – NOLAN SMITH (DUKE)
A stunning pick. I never had Nolan going to Portland. We’ll take a wait and see attitude if he stays there. He’ll back up Andre Miller and Brandon Roy as a combo guard off the bench.

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For Thursday night’s draft, I’ll be live blogging it throughout the night on both twitter and on this site. You can find me on twitter @bigdukeballs. Obviously those updates will be short and sweet. On this site, I’ll live blog in more depth.

So please join BDB. At the very least you can make fun of my typos.

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KYRIE IRVING, CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (1st PICK)
The Cavs are basically starting from scratch. Outside of J.J. Hickson, I don’t see a single player on their roster still playing in Cleveland in three years. Luckily for them, they got three first-round picks in this year’s draft, including two of the first four, to begin this post-LeBron rebuilding process.

Now the Cavs could get sneaky and go large with the first pick (D. Williams, E. Kanter?) and pray for Irving to fall to them with the 4th pick (he won’t) or just settle on someone like Brandon Knight, but that’s not going to happen. If Derrick Rose has taught us anything, this is a point guard league. If you’re going to start fresh, you grab your quarterback.

Irving played less than a dozen games at Duke, but he left an impression. He’s quick, with a dangerous first step. He’s not afraid to get dirty inside and he’ll launch it from deep. He’s everything a NBA GM craves for when he’s not thinking of his mistress.  If he has one issue, he could use some more muscle to survive the 82-game season in the NBA serves up.

CHRIS SINGLETON, GOLDEN STATE (11th PICK)
The Warriors are desperate for two things. A big, strong body at the PF spot and more importantly, someone, anyone who can play defense. That’s Chris Singleton’s specialty. He’s long and surprisingly athletic, capable of guarding multiple spots on the floor.

Of course the knock on Singleton is he’s not a scorer. While he certainly doesn’t need to be “the man” on a team that features Monte Ellis and Seth Curry, he will have to improve his offensive game. He simply can’t shoot low forties from the field at the next level. I will say this, prior to getting injured, he had made improvements in both his jump shot and his ability to get inside. (more…)

It’s an intriguing match up simply because Michigan runs both a not-often-used offense and defense. On offense they run a weave offense, while on defense they’ll thrown a 1-3-1 zone.

KEYS TO SUCCEED

SLOWING DOWN A WEAVE

Basically, the Michigan offense consists of three perimeter guys, with a fourth guy often standing above the free throw line. The idea is for the three perimeter guys to dribble around the three-point line, handing the ball off (or faking it). The key is the person handing the ball off will also be screening/picking off the defender trying to follow the person he’s handing the ball to.

As for the big men, like I said, one will live on top of the key. At anytime, he can step in and screen. The fifth big man will hang in the paint. While he can certainly post up at any time, typically this person will flow away from the ball, living on the weak side. If any of the perimeter guys are able to find a hole and drive, that post-player will be open for a pass (if his defender comes off him to help) or he’ll be in a good stop for a backside offensive rebound.

That’s the details, so how does Duke defend it.

1. PATIENCE MAKES PERFECT
Michigan is one of the top teams in the nation in turnover percentage (#16 in fact). Now I’m not saying the Wolverines are going to go into a stall offense, but the point is to just keep doing the same thing over and over until someone makes a mistake. They weave right, they weave left, they go back right…all while waiting for an opening. If a defender goes under the screen, they’ll launch a three. If the defender gets stuck behind a screen, they’ll penetrate in. If the defense has stayed into position, they’ll just do it again…weave right, weave left, weave back again.

2. ROTATE
In reality, Duke is a near-perfect team to defend the weave. Between Smith, Curry, Irving, Singler and even Dawkins, all five can simply rotate with the weave. This is idea because the weave is successful when a team loses patience and eventually makes a mistake dealing with one of the screens.

In Duke’s case, if Smith’s man hands the ball off to Curry’s man, Smith will just stay with the new ball handler, while Curry will stay put.

3. WEAK SIDE HELP
Inside, the trick will be weak side help if someone is able to drive inside. Both Plumlee’s will always look to help and block. This is why someone like Singler will be key, since he (and Curry) will have to slide down and disrupt any attempted pass to the #5 guy. (more…)

Of course the “experts” have been more hesitant. The one major concern seems to be “team chemistry.”

Me, I’m not buying it.

Basketball is not football. It’s a simple game. While there are a variety of styles, it’s not like there is a phonebook-thick playbook each and every player has to learn. So when people talk about “team chemistry” they’re basically talking about how will each player respond with the new player in this lineup.

In Duke’s case, will players like Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler be able to relent some of the control (I.E. shots) to Irving? To me, the obvious answer is…this won’t be a problem.

Irving’s been on the sideline for every game. He’s been a cheerleader and a coach. He may not have played, but he’s been involved.

As for on the court, it’s not like Kyrie is going to walk on, play 35 minutes a game and take over a game. At the very least, he won’t be starting, he’ll probably play just 10-15 minutes against Howard and I’d be shocked if he ever sees 30 minutes on the floor. The reality is, as good as he is, not even he can be in perfect basketball shape after sitting in a boot for three months.

This will still be Singler and Smith’s team and they will still be asked to do most of the damage. However, Irving at the very least can be a shot in the arm off the bench. He’ll allow Smith to switch over to his more natural spot at shooting guard for stretches in the game(something that has happened throughout the past few months when either Curry or Thornton run the point).

When Irving is on the floor, this should push Singler back to more of a power forward, which is actually good news. Since his outside shot has not fallen lately, he’s become more of a pounder inside (averaging over eight rebounds per game over the last few weeks).

The big question the coaching staff will need to decide is, if Duke gets in a close game against either Michigan or Tennessee, is Irving on the floor? I don’t have an answer. Hopefully after the Hampton game I will.

Now in that game, there are two things I want to watch for.

First, can Irving run? Can he push the ball up the floor with the same lightening speed he did before?

Second, will his quickness on the penetration still be there? I’m talking about the ability to go one-on-one with his opponent at the top of the key and beat his man to the basket? This is what made Irving special.

Stuff like making baskets, shot selection, finding the open man, I’m not worried about these things. Those are god-given abilities, so I’m not stressed.

I want to see what happens when he pushes off that toe in a game time situation.

As you already know, the Duke Blue Devils crushed North Carolina, 75-58. The win handed the Blue Devils yet another ACC tournament crown. Of course, if you are like me, you went looking for a some in-debt analysis after the fact, but found none because everyone was focused on the tournament and brackets. So I’ll offer up my thoughts.

SO WHAT JUST HAPPENED?

TEAM EFFORT
Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are the stars of this team, but everyone has already said it a million times, Duke needs a legit third option. Well, how about five legit options?

Against North Carolina, the two seniors only shot 11-32. The rest of the team shot an astonishing 18-26 from the floor. Wow.

The best thing about this tournament as a whole was how well everyone else has played. Let’s break everyone down.

MASON PLUMLEE
Slowly but surely his ability to create inside on his own has improved. Strangely, Duke always seems to establish this early, but then sort of goes away from it as the game progresses. In the ACC tournament, Mason shot 10-14 from the floor. Hell, if you go back to the February 2 (against Maryland), he is shooting 67-percent from the floor (46-69). That’s stunningly good.

If Mason needs to step up anything, it’s his rebounding. Maybe because his brother is stealing some of his boards, but Mason has only grabbed nine total rebounds in his last two games. No big deal considering how great he’s been over the past two months, but if you remember that timeout coach called three minutes into the second, I’ll be willing to beat it was Mason who took the beating because Duke was getting killed on the boards to start the second half. Mason’s job in order is simple: Rebound, Defense and then scoring.

MILES PLUMLEE
I think the smartest thing Coach K has done this past week was inserting Miles back into the starting lineup. For whatever reason, this move has seemed to help out both he and Ryan Kelly (more on that in a moment).

The name everyone is throwing around in regard to Miles is Brian Zoubek. The similarity is, two underperforming big men, get inserted into the lineup and suddenly play great. The obvious difference is that Zoubek was thrown into the lineup in Mid-February. This change was made extremely late. Again, you’ll have to hand it to Coach K. Not a lot of coaches would have had the nuggets to make a lineup change likes this, this late in the season.

Miles actually started producing last Sunday in Chapel Hill. He didn’t start, but it certainly was his “breakout” game. Over his last four, he’s hit 14-24 from the floor. The majority of his points have come from put backs and a nice mid-range jumper. Teams aren’t respecting his shot, so he’s finding himself open from 8-10 feet.

However, Miles is doing most of his damage on the glass, especially the offensive kind. Over his last four, he’s grabbed 31 rebounds, 17 of which were offensive rebounds. He’s also taken some pressure off his brother, since he’s more capable of guarding the opponents best big man when Mason goes to the bench, something that Kelly couldn’t really do.

RYAN KELLY
Let’s face it, no player is shooting better than Ryan Kelly. After an awful shooting performance in Chapel Hill, one in which he missed wide open three after wide open three, Kelly has stepped inside the three-line and develop his mid-range game. He’s hit 12-18 from the floor since being benched and he’s only take four threes total (hitting a pair). The fact is, he’s a decent three-point shooter, but he’s not a great. When he decides not to shoot up a ton of threes, he’s just more effective. In fact, Kelly is hitting roughly 66-percent from two-point range. That’s for the year (65-101). That’s great. He shoots only 33-percent from three.

Don’t get me wrong, he needs to be shooting threes. The key to him sitting in that corner is that he draws the opponent’s big man out, opening the driving lane for Nolan Smith. I just think 2-3 attempts per game is fine.

SETH CURRY
Clearly Seth has become the legit third scoring option. Since Irving went down, Curry has averaged about 10.3 points per game. Since the BC game on the 27th of January, he’s hit a solid 49-percent of his threes. What I like best about Curry is how he’s stepped up big time in the biggest games…all three North Carolina games.

Against the Tar Heels, he’s averaged nearly 18 per game, hitting 18-31 shots. Those are great numbers.

The reality is, prior to the start of the season, I was curious to see how Curry would handle the tournament atmosphere. It’s one thing to shoot good at home in a friendly environment, it’s a whole different thing to produce in a one-and-done tournament. For a while I was actually worried about this, because Curry’s numbers dipped on the road. However, over the last month and a half, he’s begun to shoot better outside of Cameron and he had no problem putting the ball in the basket in Greensboro.

If Curry could do one thing better, I’d like to see him do more of what he did at the end of the Maryland. Think back, when Smith went out, Curry became the point guard…Seth did an amazing job handling the ball, driving to the lane, scoring, getting foul. It was unlike anything we’ve seen this year.

Yet, with Nolan back in the lineup the past two games, I can’t recall a single time Curry drove the ball into the lane. Why not do both? Sure he’s in there for his long-range shot, but just imagine if he did a ball-fake, leaving his man in the air, dove to the lane, forcing the opponents big to help and then dish to Miles or Mason for an easy jam. Possible, just not happening.

ANDRE DAWKINS
No one questions Dawkins’ ability to shoot from three. He can. He should. He’s Duke’s best long-range shooter. When the Blue Devils start off ice cold, it is usually Dawkins who comes in and provides a scoring lift. Yet, towards the end of the season, Dawkins’ minutes disappeared. What happened?

Three things happened. Curry got better. Nothing Dawkins can do about that. What’s he doing better than Dawkins? That’s number two…Moving (without the ball). Curry has done a lot better job moving around on the offense, finding ways to get open. Dawkins had a tendency to stand around. Lastly, Dawkins had become a liability on defense. The fact is, go back and watch a game in February. Just watch Dawkins and you would see a guy who found himself trailing on a play. He seemed to be asleep on the defensive end.

However, in the ACC tournament, Dawkins seems to have stepped up his defensive game. While he certainly could do a better job of using his feet on defense (he still gets tied up), you can’t question his aggressiveness. He’s certainly made it a mission of his to earn his time back on the floor. If he can do this, then Duke doesn’t really have a need for Thornton. (more…)

Of course the big story in the Duke win was the potential loss of Nolan Smith. God damn toes! I’ll save my toe thoughts for the end. For now, lets you and I focus on what happened tonight.

There was a lot to be impressed by. Where to start?

SLINGIN’ SINGLER
Duke senior, Kyle Singler, who has recently found it tougher to score than a North Korean soccer team, really had his best game in a long, long time. This was even more impressive than his 28-point outburst against Temple. In that game, all his points came at or near the basket, attacking a smaller team. Like I said at the time, he didn’t really end his “shooting” slump.

Maybe because he’s finally starting to realize this is the end, but tonight he was able to avoid the slump (note I’m not using the word ending. One good night does not end a month long slump). I loved what I saw from him tonight though. His first shot was a mid-range jumper, his last shot was a mid-range jumper (both from the elbow).  He did a little from the inside. He did a little from the outside. Sure he didn’t hit any threes (0-4), but props should go to Maryland’s D. Gary Williams had his boys on the line, in their grill, daring Duke to drive.

HE’S NOT HEAVY, HE’S MY BROTHER
Smart move by Coach K to stick brother Miles into the starting lineup with Mason. Ryan Kelly has become sort of a defensive liability the past few weeks and a liability is not what you want when you’re facing Jordan Williams (in my mind, the best big man in the ACC). By sticking in Miles, it puts a thicker body on Williams and helps keep Mason out of foul trouble.

The brother duo really jelled tonight. Mason had a double-double, 10 points, 11 rebounds, but most impressively, five assists. Slowly but surely he’s starting to do two things well.

First, he’s putting his back to the basket and scoring (or dishing). Second, he’s hitting his free throws. I think it certainly helped to have another big man playing well early. When his brother Miles or Ryan Kelly do well, Mason seems to just relax and becomes a smoother player.

Miles arguable had his best game of the year. He finished with 10 points and nine rebounds. More importantly a stunning eight of his nine rebounds were on the offensive end.

I will argue that Duke will need to improve on actually making teams pay for allowing a rebound. Ironically I always argue that our big men tend to pass out after offensive rebounds. Tonight Miles did do just that. He took it back up, just not very successfully.

Overall, the Blue Devils only scored off of two of Miles’ eight offensive rebounds. However, he took six of those shots. For the record he produced all four points that were scored off his boards.

MR. PERFECT
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when Kelly’s cold, I can feel the frost on MY nipples all the way here in NY. When he’s hot, he can light up downtown Durham. Tonight it was the latter.

With Nolan Smith and Seth Curry unable to produce points in the first half (one combined basket in the first half), Ryan Kelly came off the pine and nailed five jumpers, including his first three pointer away from Cameron since February 16 at Virginia.

PAUSE
Sorry, stopping to watch the mud wrestling scene from Stripes…man I miss John Candy…okay, I’m back. (more…)

A season that started off so promising just ended in a big fat, baby blue dud. The Duke Blue Devils simply looked overmatched against North Carolina, losing 81-67. The fact is, Duke was never really in this thing. The one time Duke made a mini-run to open the first half, Carolina quickly rallied for a 9-2 run.

Luckily for all of us, this is college basketball and not college football. In the grand scheme of things, this game only really hurts a man’s pride. A team like Duke will solely be judged during that three-week tournament set to start in roughly two weeks.

SO WHAT JUST HAPPENED?

TWO ON FIVE
For the second time this season, only two Duke players were effective against North Carolina. They were of course Nolan Smith and Seth Curry. The former did his damage with the drive, while the latter did his damage outside.

For the game, the pair were 15-32. The rest of the team was 7-30. In two games against the Tar Heels, Nolan and Seth are 36-65 from the field. The rest of the team is just 14-65.

Sorry folks, but you can’t beat North Carolina on the road with just two players producing.

Having said that, it’s not like either played a perfect game.

Nolan shot 0-4 from three. In fact, he’s 0-7 in his last two road games (both loses).

While Curry was a demon from the outside, the kid has some serious work to do to develop a drive to the basket. He made Marshall look like the conferences’ best defender. Not once was Curry able to drive the ball past anyone.

Lastly, in Duke’s win over Carolina, they turned Kendall Marshall into a scorer. Tonight, not so much. He finished the game with 11 assists and is clearly the ACC’s best point guard right now.

SINGLER VS TALENT
In their first match up, Kyle Singler and Harrison Barnes pretty much played to a draw. Neither did much on the offensive end, thus canceling each other out.  Tonight, Barnes did score 18, but he needed 17 shots to do it. Yet, you would never say that Barnes looked rattled. You can’t say the same for Kyle.

In two games against Barnes, Singler is just 6-31 from the floor. That’s awful. That’s also the reason why Singler will probably never be a lottery pick in the NBA draft. Barnes is exactly the kind of talent Singler will face nightly in the NBA. Barnes is longer and more athletic and so far Singler has not figured out an answer for him. He can’t drive. He can’t do much inside with Henson and Zeller helping. He could do some damage on the outside, but he just looks rushed out there.

COME ON RYAN KELLY!
I can’t remember a time when I’ve been more frustrated with Ryan Kelly. This game was set up for him. North Carolina showed right from the start that they were not going to guard Kelly on the outside. He hits some of those shots, this is a different game.

Kelly couldn’t hit anything from deep. He missed all six of his three pointers, all three were wide open looks (five from the same corner spot on the floor). I’m sorry, but Coach K can suit me up and I can produce those kind of stats.

Those misses were huge. The whole idea of Kelly being on the floor is because he’s suppose to be a threat from outside. If he hits one or two of them, it clears the lane up because it forces Henson to roll out to defend him.

On twitter, everyone kept calling for coach to bench Kelly and put Singler at the four spot, but against North Carolina that’s not a legit option. They’re just too big. You put Singler on Henson, then who guards Barnes? Dawkins? That would literally mean that Duke would be smaller at every single position on the floor.

SPEAKING OF DEFENSE
I’ll be honest, this is the best defensive team I’ve ever seen by a team led by Roy Williams. They’re just so damn long inside and Barnes is such a weapon because he can defend both inside and out. (more…)