No 1. NORTH CAROLINA
The Tar Heels are not just the number one team in the ACC, they are the clear number one team in the land. They return everybody that matters, including potential All-American Harrison Barnes. You could argue that the Tar Heels have not only the best small forward (Barnes) in the conference, but also the top point guard (Marshall), best center (Zeller) and best power forward (Henson). While I wouldn’t label Strickland the top SG, he’s still pretty effective.

If you’re looking for any kind of weakness, maybe we could talk about frontcourt depth, but let’s be honest, incoming freshman James McAdoo will probably be better than Justin Knox. Anything short of a national championship will be a disappointment for this team.

No. 2 DUKE
The Blue Devils are stunningly deep next season, to the point where I have no idea how Coach K is going to handle it. Hell, their incoming freshman class (Cook, Rivers, Gbinije, Murphy and Marshall Plumlee) could all start and still finish second in the ACC. Assuming Austin Rivers is as good as advertised, then Duke is looking like a solid 2-seed (potential one) in the NCAA Tournament.

However, if they’re looking to remain the top dogs of the ACC over UNC, then the Plumlee brothers (I’m talking about Miles and Mason) need to step up their games. They are the keys to any late push into March.

No. 3 MIAMI
This is where things get hazy. The ACC is clearly North Carolina/Duke and then everyone else. The popular third pick will be the Seminoles, but I’m going to shake things up and put the Hurricanes up to three. I really think Jim Larranaga is going to improve this veteran team.

The fact is, I love their “Big Three” of Malcolm Grant, Durant Scott and big man Reggie Johnson. I’m especially excited to see Johnson in the middle. I think the 300-pound center will play like an All-ACC player next season.

No. 4 FLORIDA STATE
The Seminoles lost their two top players in Singleton and Kitchen. Don’t discount how important the pair were. In fact, I would argue Kitchen was the bigger loss, because he’s going to be the toughest to replace.

Ian Miller will take over the point guard role, even though his natural skill set is scoring. If he can run the offense and keep the turnovers to a minimum, then I’d probably stick them back up to the three spot in the ACC. I just suspect he’s going to be sizzle some days and fizzle others.

In the end though, Hamilton’s team has always been about the defense and that won’t change. Okaro White, Bernard James and Xavier Gibson will again make life difficult in the paint for just about everybody.

No. 5 CLEMSON
You have to hand it to Coach Brownell, he has a strategy…although I’m not sure what it is. With the addition of five new freshman (all should be coming off the bench in 2011-2012), the Tigers might have the most athletic team in the ACC. However, Clemson will probably be the worst shooting team in league as well.

Three things need to happen for Clemson to head back to the NCAA Tournament. First, Andre Young needs to stop jacking up threes and be a Kendal Marshall-type facilitator. Second, Devin Booker needs to become a finisher inside like his brother and third, Milton Jennings needs to show us why he was a McDonald’s All-American. (more…)

Two years ago, I picked Duke to win it all. Last year, I didn’t. I’m telling you, this is just for kicks. Enjoy.

FIRST SECOND-ROUND

EAST REGIONAL

#1 OHIO STATE OVER #16 TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
Sometimes top seeds take a little time get going. Others are up 30 by halftime. This one will be the latter. Like my wife at an SEM club, look for Jared Sullinger to  announce his presence with authority with a double-double.

#8 GEORGE MASON OVER #9 VILLANOVA
I’m tempted to take the Wildcats, simply because everyone is picking Mr. Mason, but Villanova has looked terrible lately and you can’t come into this tournament colder than Nicolas Cages’ career.

#12 CLEMSON OVER #5 WEST VIRGINIA
Call me a homer, but I like an experienced Tigers team with a game under their belt against the Mountaineers. I also think Demontez Stitt is a bit underrated and can out-perform Joe Mazzulla. I also hate nuts in my peanut butter, but that has nothing to do with anything.

#4 KENTUCKY OVER #13 PRINCETON
I loved to take the Tigers and I’ll certainly be rooting for them, but Kentucky is loaded with NBA talent. Sure they are young and they will struggle at some point in this tournament, but Princeton will have no answer for Terrence Jones.

#11 MARQUETTE OVER #6 XAVIER
Sorry fans of the Atlantic 10, but if Marquette was in your conference, they would have had enough talent to win it all. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable at defending the three, but Xavier doesn’t have anyone who shoots over 35-percent from deep.

#3 SYRACUSE OVER #14 INDIANA STATE
I actually read “When March Went Mad” this fall. Good read. I learned a few new things. Prior to reading the book, I knew that Bird walked away from Bob Knight and Indiana, but I always assumed he just transfered to Indiana State. I never realized that he had no intention of going back to college. He had to actually be convinced to give it another shot by assistant coach Bob King (who would be the head coach in 1979). If it wasn’t for Bob King, we never would have had a player to compare all the slow, white, gritty basketball players with. BTW, Syracuse wins.

#7 WASHINGTON OVER #10 GEORGIA
If the Washington Huskies aren’t a deep sleeper in your bracket, then you should double check that bracket. It’s easy to overlook those west coast teams, but the Huskies are dangerous. Two years ago, they lost in the second round. Last year they made it to the sweet 16. This year, don’t be surprised to see them move even further behind a solid inside-outside combo of Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Isaiah Thomas.

#2 NORTH CAROLINA OVER #15 LONG ISLAND
Until being blown out by Duke in the ACC title game, no team had been hotter. While Long Island won’t present much of a challenge, I’ll be most curious to see who looks and feels the most comfortable in a tournament setting. The fact is, no one on this team has ever started in a NCAA tournament game.

WEST REGIONAL

#1 DUKE OVER #16 HAMPTON
There is only one storyline for this game on Friday…will he or won’t he. He being Kyrie Irving and will/won’t is will he actually play. He won’t start and he won’t play a ton, but how excite will Duke nation be if they see the freshman on the court?

#8 MICHIGAN OVER #9 TENNESSEE
There is nothing more frustrating than trying to pick a Tennessee game. No team has been more inconsistent this year then Bruce Pearl’s boys. So lets focus on Michigan. It’s a bit shocking to think that this Wolverines team  actually lost six in a row at one point this season (has a team ever lost six in a row in a season and get an at-large bid before?). Yet, Michigan finished 10-4 down the stretch, with two of those loses coming against Ohio State. The other two loses were a one-point loss to Wisconsin and a two-point loss to Illinois. Not too shabby.

#5 ARIZONA OVER #12 MEMPHIS
The obvious storyline is Memphis’ head coach Josh Pastner facing Arizona, the team he played for and coached for (as an assistant for Lute Olsen). The real storyline will be Derrick Williams and the fact that the Tigers will have no answer for him.  The Arizona sophomore forward will be a pro next year, after averaging 19/8 this year, shooting over 60-percent from three. Not bad for a 6’9 guy.

#13 OAKLAND OVER #4 TEXAS
Yep, I’m jumping on the bandwagon feet first. I’m probably going to regret this, but that’s my life story. Experience gives me a hard-on and Oakland actually has more of it. The Longhorns have more talent, but of their top four stars, two are freshman, two are sophomores. After writing all that, I know I’m going to regret jumping on board this bandwagon. Texas will win, they’ll end up facing and beating Duke in the Sweet 16 and it will be all my fault. F*ck!

#6 CINCINNATI OVER #11 MISSOURI
I’d love to pick against another Big East team, but let’s face some facts. The Tigers from Missouri have dropped four of their last five games, but that’s not the number that’s keeping me from taking Missouri. Oh no. The stat I think is key is offensive rebounding. The Bearcats can. The Tigers can’t stop it. Cincinnati is 10th in the nation in offensive rebounding efficiency. Missouri is #313 in the nation in defensive rebounding efficiency. Ouch.

#3 CONNECTICUT OVER #14 BUCKNELL
I actually think the Bison can win this game. They are a solid defensive team and the Huskies can certainly miss a ton of shots. Bucknell is going to make it their mission to stop Kemba Walker, but surprise, surprise, Connecticut isn’t a one-man team. Look for some solid stats from freshman Jeremy Lamb and Roscoe Smith.

#7 TEMPLE OVER #10 PENN STATE
The Owls have actually lost in the first-round the past three years, but that streak ends today. The reality is, Temple is a solid, smart offensive team that takes good shots and is 11th in the nation in FG efficiency. Look for Temple’s top-40 defense to shutdown Penn State’s only good scorer, Talor Battle.

#2 SAN DIEGO STATE OVER #15 NORTHERN COLORADO
So far in the West bracket, I’ve only picked one upset (Oakland over Texas) and I’m not even confident in that pick. So why stop now? I’d look for Northern Colorado to keep it close for a while, especially against a San Diego State that has zero tournament wins, but the Aztecs will prevail. (more…)

WHAT JUST HAPPENED:
The Duke Blue Devils improved to 15-0, but it wasn’t easy. Facing their toughest challenge to date, Duke battled poor shooting and turnovers to take down the Maryland Terrapins, 71-64. The win gives Duke a 2-0 record in conference (both wins are at home), while dropping Maryland to 0-2.

While few people will brag about this game, I’ll stay excited. There will be off nights and this team will need to find ways to win when the shots aren’t falling. Tonight, that’s what we got. Sure, Maryland won’t be the best team Duke will face all year, but they are just one of those teams that isn’t bothered by the Duke label. They’re going to challenge Duke, no matter what the talent level is on the floor.

THE GAME WAS OVER WHEN…
…Kyle Singler nailed an open three with 58 seconds on the clock. Duke’s lead was at five. The Terps needed a stop. All game long they did a masterful job defending the three, but when Singler gave Smith a screen up top, both defenders followed Nolan. It was the easiest shot of the night for the senior and he stroked it in.

WHO DESERVES MAD PROPS:
Kyle Singler had a strong night. Let’s just blame it on the new hairdo. He finished with 25 and 10, including four key offensive rebounds. He found success driving around Maryland’s smaller defenders. He also hit the three-pointer that sealed the game.

DON’T FORGET ABOUT…
How about Ty Thornton? Welcome to ACC play kid. With Duke’s first half struggles carrying over into the second half, Duke needed something, anything different to propel this team. I certainly didn’t think Coach K would call on the freshman, Tyler Thornton. Of course that’s why he’s the coach and I’m just some jackass sitting at his computer.

With about 16 minutes on the clock and Duke down six, in came Thornton and Seth Curry (more on him in a bit). Curry’s scoring and Thornton’s defense lit something under the Blue Devils’ asses.

Thornton in particular shut down Terrell Stoglin, who was having success driving and dishing. The best part had to be his little jumper. Thornton has taken so few shots, I was just excited to see him shoot. I nearly wet myself when it went in.

LOSERS NEED LOVE TO…
Of course it’s Jordan Williams. He picked up two quick fouls, but it didn’t hurt his game too much. He scored yet another double-double, 23 points, 13 boards. He’s so good inside, when he got you, you almost knew he was going to score. Of course he missed a huge basket underneath when he grabbed an offensive rebound and missed the put back with just over two minutes to play. If he makes it, Maryland is down just three.

GOD I LOVE STATS: Duke has won 25-straight games. It is the second longest winning streak in Duke history. They are seven more wins away from tying their team high.

RANDON RANTS:

NO-NO NOLAN
Clearly stopping Nolan Smith was Gary Williams’ game plan and it worked. Smith struggled to find his shot, often running into double teams, having shots blocked. Obviously, every night can’t be an All-American night. Everyone, including Nolan, gets a night off.

I would like to see him recognize what’s going on and adjust better though. Clearly you always tell shooters they need to shoot themselves out of a slump, but tonight it wasn’t just about an off-shooting night. Nolan had the target on his back. Too often, Nolan kept forcing things. The team began to have success when his focus switched to getting the ball to others. Once Duke got a small lead, Nolan was able to settle down and find some looks later. If you ignore the shooting percentage and five turnovers, he actually had a solid 18 points, eight boards and seven assists.

TERPS TERRIFIC D
You have to give props to Maryland. They played a terrific defensive game tonight. While they’re young, they are also long and athletic. They caused 17 turnovers and blocked eight shots. Duke only shot 40-percent because there weren’t a ton of open shots.

TALENT NEEDS AN IQ
At some point I’m going to have to just throw my hands up in the air. Mason Plumlee is a gifted basketball player, who just makes way too many mistakes. He continues to fade away on all his turnaround shots. He continues to make stupid mistakes on the defensive end. Three of his five fouls came on reach arounds.

Now there is nothing wrong with trying to deny Jordan Williams the ball. In fact, because Williams has a habit of leaning back, the steals can be had. The problem was, Mason always seem to get called for a foul when he tried it. MIles on the other hand, had a much better time doing it.

ANDRE, WHAT’S UP BRO?
I appreciate that huge three at the end, but this was not your finest hour. I’m fine with the shooting (he was 3-6), but the defensive effort was terrible. Too many times, Dawkins’ man was able to blow by him into the lane. D up man, or you’ll be backing up Curry again.

CURRY SCORES
Nice scoring lift by Seth. He scored 12 for the game, all in the final 16:30. It would be nice though if Curry can make a play and the camera crew could not cut to his father. I’m all for showing love to the parents, but since Dell never reacts to a single thing, let’s cut down on the air time, okay?

IF YOU SHOOT THEM, YOU BETTER MAKE THEM
Ryan Kelly is a big guy. We need him to do big guy stuff. Early on, he did just that. He got a couple of boards (including one put-back) and blocked two shots. Then he got trigger happy  and started missing three-point shots. Not shockingly, he didn’t play in the final 16 minutes of the game. If you’re going to shot like J.J. Redick, you need to make them like J.J. Redick.

THE GAME WAS DECIDED WHEN…
…Nolan Smith decided to take over. After picking up a questionable charging call along the sideline, Nolan Smith decided it was his time to shine. During a four-minute stretch starting at the 5:05 mark, Smith would score 13 in a row. Meanwhile the Hurricanes only produced one bucket during that time. Suddenly a two-point lead is a 13-point lead and the Canes never got closer than nine in the second half.

WHO DESERVES MAD PROPS:
Clearly, it’s Nolan Smith. The senior combo guard put the game in his back pocket tonight, turned to his teammates and said, “I got this.” If he’s not the best guard in the country right now, he’s certainly the most important.

For the fourth straight game he made more shots than he missed. He made all of his free throws and finished with 28 points. He is averaging 24 points and 5.5 assists over the last two weeks.

Tonight he again showed the complete package, driving to the lane with either hand, dishing when he was doubled, nailing the deep ball when no else could.

DON’T FORGET ABOUT…
…Andre Dawkins. I’m not sure why coach has him coming off the bench, but it didn’t bother him tonight. In a night where Curry had four more fouls than made shots (4-0), Dawkins stepped up to be that third option tonight. He finished with 16 on the night. What was most impressive was that Dawkins did not hesitate to drive the ball to the lane. He’s growing more and more comfortable inside the paint.

LOSERS NEED LOVE TO…
…Reggie Johnson. Baby Shaq was a monster tonight. When not sitting on the bench with two fouls, he owned the paint. He finished with 22 points and nine boards. The kid is a natural. Despite weighing over 300 pounds, he has soft hands and quick feet. He showed us a handful of post moves and a sweet baseline drive/junk right past Mason Plumlee.

If this guy could ever stay out of foul trouble, he could be one of the best in the ACC. Tonight he did all his damage in only 23 minutes. Duke’s big run…that happened in the back end of the first half, with Johnson on the bench.

What has to be so frustrating for Miami fans is the fact that all four of his fouls tonight were stupid fouls. His first foul was 20 feet from the basket (stupid). His second was also away from the basket, where the Duke player was in no position to score. The third foul was a lazy swipe from behind Miles after a Miami miss. The final was that questionable elbow.

GOD I LOVE STATS: Did you ever notice Duke struggles with offensive rebounding when Kyle Singler misses a shot? I did. Tonight, Kyle Singler missed ten shots and none were rebounded by a Duke player.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

DIGGING DAWKINS
Since Kyrie Irving’s toes forced Andre Dawkins into the starting lineup, the spunky sophomore has shinned. He’s averaged over 15 per game, hitting a solid 16-28 from the field, including 11-20 from three.

While his 28-pt effort against Bradley was his best performance so far, I would argue his most important performance was his two-point effort against St. Louis. The fact is, I want this kid shooting, but I want him taking good shots. The Billikens game-planned for Dawkins and the shooting guard didn’t force up anything, letting his open teammates handle the scoring load.

Now I wouldn’t call Dawkins’ performance this year (53-percent from three) surprising, most people would have predicted that Seth Curry would be Duke’s best scoring option if either Kyrie Irving or Nolan Smith went down. Instead, Dawkins has become one of the best shooters in the nation and has, dare I say, a quiet cockiness about him right now.

TIME TO TINKER
So far this season Coach K has started eight different players. This is nothing new. He’s just trying to figure out what’s the best rotation heading into ACC play. I would expect nothing less tonight and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another three-guard look with Curry stepping in, while Singler goes to the 4-spot.

ROAD WARRIORS
Over the years we all know Duke played three different types of road games. There’s the neutral site tournament, Cameron North (New York, New Jersey), and the “play at the a senior’s home state” game.  I’ve been preaching for a long time now for them to get out there and play some real road games.

Technically this game is a “real” road game, it’s just too bad it’s not against a challenging opponent. Also, Greensboro? That’s like a bus ride away. They certainly could have done better. At least leave the state.

At the very least, since Duke is not the locals’ favorite flavor, the crowd should end up being somewhat hostile. At least until the Blue Devils blow this thing open early.

UNC GREENSBORO SPARTANS

HOW BAD ARE THE SPARTANS…
…They’re so bad, well I’ve already mentioned the 0-11 record, so there is that. According to Ken Pom, the Spartans are ranked 297th out of 345 schools. Their Adjusted defensive Efficiency is just 317th in the nation, they’re 337th in Defensive Effective FG% and their Defensive Rebounding% is 326th. What do all those numbers mean? It means if Duke doesn’t score over 100, it will feel like a victory to the Spartans. No really, but you get my point.

WHO TO WATCH FOR
Overall, the Spartans a deep team (nine should play tonight) and are surprisingly balanced in scoring (five players average at least eight per game). Forward Aloysius Henry is the team’s leading scorer. The junior who is seeing action for the first time in his college career is averaging 11.6 per game, leading the team in rebounds with over six per game.

The 6’10 forward does most of his damage around the rim, so Duke’s big men don’t have to sweat too many offensive moves. While Henry has never fouled out of a game this year, he does to tend to get into foul trouble. He picked up four fouls in six of his 11 games this year. One has to assume Duke’s more athletic front line can take full advantage of this.

STAT TO PAY ATTENTION TO
Listen, the Spartans can’t shoot (40-percent from the floor), they can’t hit free throws (66-percent) and they can’t hit their threes and they can’t pull down offensive rebounds. Of course none of that matters if they turn the ball over.

Now the Spartans’ guards aren’t tragic. Kyle Randall and Korey VanDussen have dished out 65 assists to just 51 turnovers. That’s not great, but it’s not that bad either. However, the rest of the team has just 52 assists to 124 turnovers.

WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Duke wins a yawner, 106-61

THE GAME WAS OVER WHEN…
…Duke put St. Louis out of their misery with an 18-4 run starting at the 15-minute mark in the second half. It’s becoming the patient Duke run in the second half.

The Blue Devils led by 20 or so for most of the game, but even bad teams can make up 20-point deficits. In fact, St. Louis started the second half on a 11-5 run, bringing Duke’s lead down to 17. Then Duke went on their run and the lead was up to 30. Good night.

WHO DESERVES MAD PROPS…Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. The Duke seniors picked it up today, scoring 43 of Duke’s 84 points. They hit a solid 16-28 from the floor.

For Singler, it was nice to finally see him take advantage of his size advantage against smaller defenders. He spent most of his time working the ball inside. He only took four threes for the game.

Of course with Kyrie Irving out (maybe for the season), Nolan Smith is the most important player on this team. Against Bradley he struggled to find his shot, while running the point (10 assists). Today he came out more aggressive, looking for his shot. He did most of his damage driving strongly to the basket. In fact, he only took one three-point shot. For the game, he also grabbed five rebounds and dished out six assists.

As good as this team is as a whole, it’s hard to imagine a non-Irving Duke team can be successful if Nolan has a bad night. The offense runs through him now.

DON’T FORGET ABOUT:
Seth Curry had a nice game. He scored 12, taking half of Duke’s threes today. He also ran some point, dishing out six assists, turning it over only twice. Obviously Curry is still trying to figure out his role on this team. If you’re looking for one positive from Irving’s injury (assuming he does come back), it’s going to allow Curry more minutes. The more experience he gets, the more valuable he becomes later in the season.

If he needs to work on one thing, it’s what he does with the ball inside the paint. Today he tried some dribble drive and he clearly showed he can get by his defender, but a handful of times, he drove and kind of got stuck.

For example…in the first half he curled around a perfect screen. The ball was delivered to him perfectly at about eight feet. The paint was wide open for a open jumper or even a lay up at the rim. Instead Curry stopped on a dime, got stuck and eventually traveled.

Overall not too worry. Once he starts to hit that outside shot with some consistency, the inside stuff will soon follow. (more…)

With the win, Duke won their 81st straight game at home against non-conference foes. A streak that won’t be in any kind of jeopardy until maybe Temple shows up in late February.

THE GAME WAS OVER WHEN…
Kyler Singler put back a blocked shot with 2:55 to play. Let’s set it up for you. Duke is up five with the ball. The Blue Devils were up nine, but Michigan State’s Durrell Summers scored back-to-back baskets. This possession was key. The Spartans needed the stop.

The Devils go into slowdown mode. Nolan Smith has the ball high up top. Mason is trying to set a screen, but it’s not happening. Nolan looks stuck. The shot clock is ticking down. Suddenly, he goes left, Irving streaks to the basket. Nolan throws him a perfect bounce pass with three seconds on the shot clock. It’s a thing of beauty, but suddenly Draymond Green comes out of nowhere and blocks the shot. Shit! Shot clock violation…but wait, no…Kyle Singler swoops in and patiently puts a shot up (and yes, the ball was out of his hand before it hits zero). Two points!

The put back was huge. If Duke doesn’t make a basket, Michigan State has the ball, they’ve scored four straight and can now get back within three or even two with plenty of time on the clock. Instead, Duke goes back up by seven and the Spartans miss their next four shots.

WHO DESERVES MAD PROPS?
This one is too damn easy. Kyrie Irving had a career game (and to think it’s only game number seven). The kid simply took over. In the first half, Duke was struggling. Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith were 1-9 from the floor. Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry were missing shots and turning it over. The brother Plumlee’s scored some, but foul trouble was taking them out of the game. Yet, the freshman simply put this team on his back.

For a good 10-minute stretch in the first half, he was unstoppable. Just like with Jacob Pullen a week ago, there was nothing senior guard, Kalin Lucas could do.

In the second half, the rest of the Duke squad finally jumped on board, but in the end, Irving again decided he was going to be the finisher. When the Spartans made a good basket, Irving took it upon himself to take it all the way down and respond. At the end of the game, he wanted to be at the free throw line to finish the game.

All told, Kyrie finished with 31 points, four assists, six rebounds and three blocks. He shot 8-12 from the floor (the rest of the team was just 17-41). He was 13-16 from the free throw line. That’s just unfair. Could it be…best basketball player in college? Too early to say, but Harrison Barnes, eat your heart out.

DON’T FORGET ABOUT…
…Mason Plumlee in the middle. He finished with his fifth double-double of the season, producing 10 points and 10 rebounds. Seven of those 10 boards were offensive, although it would help if Duke could do a better job capitalize on some of those offensive rebounds. Of those, Duke only managed to produce points twice (five total points). Twice Mason grabbed the rebound and then immediately turned it over…which brings me to one last point.

There are times when Mason looks like he has cement for hands. What can the coaching staff do to soften those puppies up? Without a doubt, the middle Plumlee is a superior athlete for a man his size. His understanding of the position and his role on this team are outstanding. He’s a lot better than he was last year, but he still struggles to finish plays and he turns the ball over (without the ball being stolen from him) way too much. Just look at the stat sheet…Mason had five steals tonight, great…but he also turned it over five times.

His ability to finish strong at the basket is key, especially when teams are fouling him. When you’re 40% from the free throw line, you need to force that ball into the hoop.

(more…)

It was suppose to be simple…1 vs 2.

The Duke Blue Devils and Michigan State Spartans were clearly the two best teams in the nation prior to the season. This game was suppose to be a preview of of the 2010-2011 national championship game, but then the Spartans had to go and lose a game.

Granted, this probably still is a preview of the national championship game, but No. 1 vs. No. 5, like me in a Speedo, just isn’t as sexy. Thanks, Spartans.

BIG DUKE BALL’S THREE-POINT THOUGHTS

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE
The reports are in…Duke is good. In fact, Duke is really good. Duke is better than everyone. Duke is better than everyone by a lot. This team is so good…how good are they? They’re so good, they can go undefeated. Jesus himself would be stuck coming off the bench.

Read any newspaper, find any article, check out any blog writing about Duke and this is the basic theme. The question is, can all this go to a player’s head? It’s hard to imagine they’re not buying into the hype.

This is the number one challenge for this coaching staff. This team will need to be reminded over and over again, that they still have a lot to learn, they still have a lot of challenges ahead and no matter how good they think they are, this is college basketball, the best team doesn’t always cut down the nets at the end.

(more…)

As exciting as that write was though, today is a new day and it’s time to really impress you with part two. Impressed yet? You shouldn’t be, I haven’t even started yet.

Wednesday, December 1st

Purdue @ Virginia Tech
The Hokies and Boilermakers will face off first the first time in this challenge. Virginia Tech has only played in five of these so far, but they’ve managed to take three of the five. Purdue has never really proven itself in this challenge. They’re only 3-6, including an 0-4 mark on the road. In fact, they are one of three teams (Michigan and Iowa are the other two) that have never won on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Purdue got off to a nice start to the season, winning five straight, before running into Richmond. Of course, like so many teams who start the season undefeated, Purdue hasn’t really played anyone and they really won’t until Big Ten play. Virginia Tech could be their toughest test.

So far, Purdue’s mission has been to find a solid third option with Ronnie Hummel out for the season. The fact is, a threesome is always better than a twosome. I believe I saw that on a video clip I found on the Internet. So far, that mission has not been a success.

E-Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson have combined to score over 37 points per game. That accounts for 47-percent of Purdue’s points. They’ve taken nearly half of the team’s shots. You have to figure that number is going to get worse once the Boilermakers stop playing cream puffs and get into the meat of their schedule.

Speaking of cream puffs, Virginia Tech has been crucified (and left out of the tournament) because of their non-threatening non-conference schedule in the past. This season, Seth Greenberg finally put some steak and potatoes on the schedule, but the problem is, someone has to remind them that they need to actually win one or two of these bad boys.

The problem for the Hokies so far is the fact they have two great guards, but they’re both naturally shooting guards. Both Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson can score points (they’re producing over 32 a game right now), but both are struggling to hold on to the ball. Hudson has only 10 assists to 18 turnovers, but Delaney (who is actually playing the point) is worse. He has only 18 assists to 35 turnovers (that’s nearly six a game).

If the Hokies are going to get this ship turned around, there is no better time then a televised game, at home with the crowd going nuts.

WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Virginia Tech, 81-77

North Carolina State @ Wisconsin
These two have never met in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Wisconsin has won three of their last four games in the challenge, including heading Duke its first loss in this challenge last year. North Carolina State has dropped three of four.

The Wolfpack lost Tracy Smith for three weeks to a knee injury and so far, NC State has survived without their senior big man thanks to a balanced effort. In four games, a player has scored in double figures 17 times, yet no one has broken 20 points.

Heading into the season, C.J. Leslie and Ryan Harrow were the two big-named freshman headed to Raleigh, but freshman Lorenzo Brown has been the one getting it done. He leads the team in minutes (31.2), points (12.5), assists (4.2), steals (1.8) and is second in rebounds (5.2).

Wisconsin is off to a slow start, already suffering two loses to UNLV and Notre Dame. Neither defeat was a major upset, but the fact is, the Badgers are desperately looking for a go-to guy, who will take care of business during clutch time.

Against UNLV, the Badgers had a one-point lead with 4:38 to play. While they hit their free throws, they didn’t make a single shot down the stretch (shooting 0-5, turning it over three times).

At Notre Dame, Wisconsin had a nine-point lead with 10 to play. However, they would only hit two more shots the rest of the way before putting in a worthless three with seven seconds to go.

In the end though, the home crowd can get wild in Madison. The big question will be, how will NC State’s freshman handle the crowd and the pressure. My gut says they’ll crack in the end.

WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Wisconsin, 65-60

Indiana @ Boston College
Who would have thought that Boston College is the only undefeated team in this tournament. Sure they’ve only played four games, but that’s still impressive. One team they’ve never played is Indiana, who is only 3-6 in the challenge.

These two teams couldn’t be more opposite. It would be like matching up Paris Hilton with one of the Jonas Brothers. One is stacked with experience, while the other has none.

Of the 14 players on BC’s roster, two are freshman, three are juniors and a stunning nine are seniors. Based solely on games played, there is no more experienced team in the ACC. Yet, no one would bet their first born and say this is a good team.

If you look at just scoring totals, one might think Boston College is struggling to score. They’re averaging just over 67 per game (tied for last with Virginia in the ACC). However, sometimes numbers can lie. The reality is, the Eagles are actually 21st in the nation in AdjO, according to Ken Pom.

New coach Steve Donahue has forced his experienced squad to slow it down a bit and play smart, efficient basketball. The Eagles are fifth in turnover percentage, dishing out 25 more assists than turnovers. They’re also leading the ACC in free throw percentage (77-percent). Most importantly, they’re first in the ACC in scoring defense, giving up just 59 points per game.

Of course Indiana is in the process of a huge youth movement. Last year, Tom Cream’s group produced six wins, stuck playing a ton of freshman. This season, seven of their top eight scorers are either freshman or sophomores, yet they have already equaled their win total from last year.

Defense has been a big difference in 2010-2011. Last year the Hoosiers were last in the Big Ten in scoring defense, but this year they are giving up 16 points less per game. They’ve allowed their opponents to hit just 37-percent of their shots, while they’ve hit just under 50-percent from the floor.

Having said that, Indiana hasn’t really faced a real test so far. Their six opponents are just 14-19 and Indiana has handled them by the tune of 21 per game. At least the Eagles have already been through some competition this year.

WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Boston College, 76-68

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DUKE 2010-2011 SCHEDULE

While teams like Princeton, Miami (Ohio) and Colgate are no pushovers, the Blue Devils should have little problem taking care of business against their first three opponents.

The Devils then head to Kansas City to participate in the CBE Classic. They’ll take on Marquette in the opening round. The Golden Eagles will be the first of the 13 tournament teams from last year that Duke will face.

If they win, they’ll take on the winner of Gonzaga/Kansas State. Both teams should be ranked next year. The Wildcats could be a top-10 team.

A while ago, Coach K began a tradition at Duke that basically says that any scholarship player will get to play at least once in his home state. Since Kyle Singler joined Duke, the Blue Devils had failed to visit the state of Oregon.

No more. Duke will take on the Oregon Ducks in Portland after Thanksgiving.

Next up potentially is the game of the year. Duke heads home for the ACC/Big-10 Challenge where they will take on Michigan State. The Devils and Spartans should be ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in all pre-season polls.

More importantly (at least to the Cameron Crazies) is that Michigan State could be the team that ends Duke’s record-breaking non-conference home winning streak. By the time the Spartans show up, that streak should be at 79 games.

That’s a brutal start to the season, but after taking on one Final Four team from last year, they head to Cameron North (East Rutherford, NJ) to take on the Butler Bulldogs for a rematch of last year’s title game.

Over the next three weeks, Duke will host some cupcakes before finally heading into conference play. They’ll play the usual characters, Maryland twice, North Carolina twice and NC State twice. They’ll take on Virginia Tech only once and it will be at Blacksburg.