2010-11 STATS: 8.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.6 apg (.481/.791/.427)

DEEP THOUGHTS:
N/A

Overall, I saw some things I liked, I saw some thing I didn’t like. However, since this is a meaningless game in a far off land, take everything I say with a grain of salt.

THE K-MAN
Ryan Kelly came up huge Thursday and not just because his sexy new Zoub-like beard. Fact is, he’s ten pounds lighter and he’s moving around a lot better. He’s playing a lot of confidence and he’s a player that thrives on confidence.

Listen, I’m not shocked by the scoring. He’s arguable the streakiest guy in college basketball. When he’s hot, he’s flaming. Thursday night, he was flaming. He led all scorers with 20 (totaling 34 in two games).

The thing I want to know about Kelly is his defense. Last year, especially in the NCAA Tournament, he (like the Plumlee’s) were abused by stronger, athletic big men. Unfortunately we won’t learn too much during this trip. The Duke front line will face some size against China, but they aren’t loaded with athletes.

THREE-MAN OFFENSE
It’s a good thing Kelly is scoring, but I can certainly see this team falling into that same trap they run into a lot. I’m talking about all the scoring coming from just three players. The Blue Devils basically have three shooting guards on the floor, Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins. All three love to shoot the long ball, but only Rivers is capable of really getting into the lane and doing damage. Any of the three can 20+ on any given night.

I can easily see these three each averaging 14-15 points per night (which Rivers scoring about 17-18 per game).

I’d kill to have this team be a five-man offensive team. Of course this requires an inside game.

POINTS IN THE PAINT
In the first half of Thursday night’s game, Duke made little effort to work the ball inside. I can’t recall a single time when a Duke big man had the ball in his hands with his back to the basket. Obviously though the coaching staff made a big stink about it during halftime, because for a good 8-minute stretch in the third quarter, that’s all Duke did.

Overall, I saw some good things. Miles did a great job of spacing and taking the ball up strong. He worked the best with the penetrating guards, often standing in the right spot for easy baskets.

As for Mason, I wasn’t even sure he was in China until that put-back dunk in the third quarter. I’m sorry, but the kid is too talented to be invisible during long stretches of any game. Inside, he did manage to put in a running hook, something he was working on at the end of last year. Still, other times he seemed hesitant, allowing the Chinese defenders to come over and help.

Ryan Kelly did most of his damage from outside, but he did have one sweet turnaround jumper with his back to the basket. Give us more, Ryan. More!

Both Josh Hairston and Alex Murphy got some minutes, but not enough to really judge them. Hairston looks a little stronger and a bit more in control of his body. I know he pulled down seven boards the other night, but I’m not sure what his stat line was for this game.

THE D
No one expects the Blue Devils to dominate on the defensive end. Let’s face it, the game is meaningless. A couple things stood out though. Obviously the guards did a poor job getting back a few times. Rivers got sent to the bench for not running back after a turnover. Sorry Sub Zero, that’s not acceptable.

In Durham, every fast break needs to be stopped. You run down there like you’re trying to prevent someone from slapping your mamma. Great move by the coach to sit him down.

Last year, Andre Dawkins saw some of his minutes disappear because of his defensive inability. At this point, I’m not prepared to make a decision on whether he has improved. He certainly looked more aggressive, looking to disrupt passing lanes. He’s a junior now and he has to know if he wants minutes in a crowded back court, he needs to be a stud on defense.

POINTLESS
So Curry basically ran the show, while Ty Thornton brought the ball up court. I didn’t see anything Thursday that changes my opinion that freshman Quinn Cook is the best option at the point.

Here’s the deal, Curry’s got smarts and good vision, but he’s just not a facilitator. He’s not making anyone around him better with his passing. He’s never shown the ability to penetrate and create havoc. He’s basically a shorter, a bit more athletic version on Jon Scheyer.

When he ran the offense, he spent most of his time waiting for Dawkins or Rivers to come off screens. I could do that (not really).

Thornton is a true point guard, but I still think he’s a step behind the game. He struggled a bit against the trap, picking up his dribble too often (fatigue maybe) and on the one or two occasions he drove it into the paint, he didn’t seem to know what to do with it once he got down there.

On Thursday, the offense seemed to work best when Austin Rivers was in control. I’m not saying it was perfect, but I just felt like when he had the ball, he’s such a threat, the other Duke players were playing more loose.

Overall, Rivers hit some nice shoots from deep and penetrated at will against the Chinese. However, he did struggle to finish at the basket.

END RESULT:
Overall, very happy. Yes, there are a lot of kinks to work out, a lot of roles need to be figured out, but you certainly can see the talent on the floor. I can certainly see a night when this team knocks down 20+ threes. Again, I’m extremely happy to be watching Duke basketball in August.   At least the team didn’t get into a fist fight.

PLAYER: Josh Hairston
POSITION: Power Forward
TEAM: Duke
YEAR: Sophomore
TAPE: 6-7, 210

2010-11 STATS: 1.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg (.361/.565/.000)

DEEP THOUGHTS:
They call him a “Lance Thomas” clone and for good reason. Hairston, like Thomas, is a tweener forward. He prefers the power forward spot, but he is a bit undersized at 6-7, 200 pounds. Hairston is also a high-energy guy, often playing the role of a spark plug off the bench (just like Thomas).

In his limited time on the floor, Hairston never tried to force anything, often relying on a decent mid-range jumper, almost always from the baseline. He doesn’t feel comfortable putting the ball on the floor, even though he did in high school, especially from the foul line.

On the defensive end, he never was a strong straight up defender and he was certainly not a shot blocker (one all of last season). Instead, he tried to use his smaller frame and quickness to an advantage. He often maneuvered around his opponent, attempting to front the player to deny the ball.

Moving forward, Hairston will need to continue to extend his range, hopefully capable of hitting a three from time to time. While his jump shot has good form, he needs to work on a quicker release. He’ll also need to work on his ball handling skills. He has good feet, so he can beat bigger defenders to the basket.

He also needs to continue to bulk up allowing him to do more work on the boards. If you’re a PF who can’t rebound, you’re not going to get a lot of playing time. Speaking of…

This is the big difference between Josh Hairston and Lance Thomas. When Thomas was a freshman and sophomore, Duke had a paper thin front court, thus Thomas played heavy minutes. In fact, he started 18 games as a freshman and 28 more as a sophomore.

On the flip side, Hairston struggled for playing time as a freshman and looking ahead, he will again struggle to get his minutes.

Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee and Ryan Kelly will be the main rotation of big men. This leaves Hairston battling for time with incoming freshman Marshall Plumlee, who is a true center.

Obviously Hairston could find some minutes at the small forward spot, battling with two more incoming freshman, Alex Murphy (who can also play some power forward) and Michael Gbinije. However, Duke also has a ton of guards, including three shooting guards (Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins) who are too good to be spending a lot of time on the bench.

At best, I expect Hairston to be stronger and better, yet he’s still a year of way from becoming an important contributor.

TO SEE THE REST OF THE LIST (SO FAR), YOU ARE JUST ONE CLICK AWAY

2011-2012 DUKE ROSTER

3 – TYLER THORNTON, Guard — 6’2, 180 (So)
5 – MASON PLUMLEE, Forward — 6’10, 230 (Jr)
15 – JOSH HAIRSTON, Forward — 6’8, 215 (So)
20 – ANDRE DAWKINS, Guard — 6’4, 190 (Jr)
21 – MILES PLUMLEE, Forward — 6’10, 240 (Sr)
30 – SETH CURRY, Guard — 6’1, 175 (Jr)
34 – RYAN KELLY, Forward — 6’8, 240 (Jr)
51 – TODD ZAFIROVSKI, Forward — 6’5, 210 (Jr)
N/A – AUSTIN RIVERS, GUARD — 6’5, 180 (Fr)
N/A – MICHAEL GBINIJE, FORWARD — 6’6, 180 (Fr)
N/A – QUINN COOK, GUARD — 6’0, 155 (Fr)
N/A – MARSHALL PLUMLEE — 7’0, 215 (Fr)
N/A – ALEX MURPHY — 6’8, 180 (Fr)

COACHING STAFF
Head Coach – Mike Kryzewski
Associate Head Coach – Steve Wojciechowski
Associate Head Coach – Chris Collins
Assistant Coach – Jeff Capel
Special Assistant – Nate James
Director of Basketball Operations – Chris Spatola
Graduate Assistant/Head Team Manager – Chris Carrawell

PROJECTED LINEUP:

STARTING FIVE:
PG – Seth Curry
SG – Andre Dawkins
SG – Austin Rivers
PF – Mason Plumlee
C – Miles Plumlee

BALLSY THOUGHTS:
I’ll be straight with you, I have no clue what the coaching staff is going to do. I don’t feel bad though, neither do they. The trick for the 2011-2012 team is to become more balanced. No more of this three-man offense. Scoring needs to come from outside and inside. With so many options available to the coaching staff, if you can’t put the ball in the basket, enjoy your view from the bench.

Anyhow, there are two basic questions that need to be answered. Who will play the point? Who will play the wing? Let’s start up top.

Duke basically has three options, Thornton, Cook or Curry. Ty Thornton had his moments last year, but he tended to foul to much on defense (most fouls per minute on the team) and I’m still not confident he has the athleticism to be a great point guard. If I had to pick between Thornton and Cook, I’d put my money on Cook. The freshman needs to get bigger and stronger and work on his outside shot, but he’s a smart, head’s up leader, who has the ability to get the ball inside to create baskets for others.

For now though, I’d go with Curry to start the season at PG. He doesn’t have a ton of experience at the point in a Duke uniform and he’s not going to scare anyone with his quickness, but he did a solid job in last season’s ACC quarters when Nolan Smith went out.

Also, if I can throw a curve ball option at you, how about Austin Rivers playing some point? If he’s really as good as advertised, then you’d want your best player with the ball in his hands. Just think about it.

Now let’s move to the wing. No matter who runs the point, the next big decision is, does Duke go with a traditional small forward or do they roll out three guards? Obviously I think the match up will dictate the decisions. There are a lot of three-guard teams in the ACC, so Duke can simply match. Of course if we’re facing North Carolina, I’m not sure you want to put a smaller guard up against Harrison Barnes.

For now, I clearly believe Austin Rivers is too talented to come off the bench, so he’s in there. I also expect bigger and better things from Andre Dawkins. I see both starting, with Duke’s freshman combo at SF (Murphy, Gbinije) coming off the bench. (more…) ]]> http://balldurham.com/2011/05/20/early-peak-at-dukes-2011-2012-roster/feed/ 5 http://balldurham.com/2011/03/20/duke-vs-michigan-a-peak-ahead/ http://balldurham.com/2011/03/20/duke-vs-michigan-a-peak-ahead/#comments Sun, 20 Mar 2011 04:57:39 +0000 Robert Murray http://bigdukeballs.com/?p=2971 The #1 Duke Blue Devils will take on the #8 Michigan Wolverines Sunday afternoon in the NCAA Tournament’s second third-round. Both teams are coming off opening round ass-whoppings. Duke crushed Hampton 87-45, while Michigan surprised us all by rolling Tennessee by 30, 75-45. Of course that game may say something more about Tennessee than it does [...]

Duke vs. Michigan, A Peak Ahead - Ball Durham - Ball Durham - A Duke Blue Devils Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.

As you already know, the Duke Blue Devils crushed North Carolina, 75-58. The win handed the Blue Devils yet another ACC tournament crown. Of course, if you are like me, you went looking for a some in-debt analysis after the fact, but found none because everyone was focused on the tournament and brackets. So I’ll offer up my thoughts.

SO WHAT JUST HAPPENED?

TEAM EFFORT
Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are the stars of this team, but everyone has already said it a million times, Duke needs a legit third option. Well, how about five legit options?

Against North Carolina, the two seniors only shot 11-32. The rest of the team shot an astonishing 18-26 from the floor. Wow.

The best thing about this tournament as a whole was how well everyone else has played. Let’s break everyone down.

MASON PLUMLEE
Slowly but surely his ability to create inside on his own has improved. Strangely, Duke always seems to establish this early, but then sort of goes away from it as the game progresses. In the ACC tournament, Mason shot 10-14 from the floor. Hell, if you go back to the February 2 (against Maryland), he is shooting 67-percent from the floor (46-69). That’s stunningly good.

If Mason needs to step up anything, it’s his rebounding. Maybe because his brother is stealing some of his boards, but Mason has only grabbed nine total rebounds in his last two games. No big deal considering how great he’s been over the past two months, but if you remember that timeout coach called three minutes into the second, I’ll be willing to beat it was Mason who took the beating because Duke was getting killed on the boards to start the second half. Mason’s job in order is simple: Rebound, Defense and then scoring.

MILES PLUMLEE
I think the smartest thing Coach K has done this past week was inserting Miles back into the starting lineup. For whatever reason, this move has seemed to help out both he and Ryan Kelly (more on that in a moment).

The name everyone is throwing around in regard to Miles is Brian Zoubek. The similarity is, two underperforming big men, get inserted into the lineup and suddenly play great. The obvious difference is that Zoubek was thrown into the lineup in Mid-February. This change was made extremely late. Again, you’ll have to hand it to Coach K. Not a lot of coaches would have had the nuggets to make a lineup change likes this, this late in the season.

Miles actually started producing last Sunday in Chapel Hill. He didn’t start, but it certainly was his “breakout” game. Over his last four, he’s hit 14-24 from the floor. The majority of his points have come from put backs and a nice mid-range jumper. Teams aren’t respecting his shot, so he’s finding himself open from 8-10 feet.

However, Miles is doing most of his damage on the glass, especially the offensive kind. Over his last four, he’s grabbed 31 rebounds, 17 of which were offensive rebounds. He’s also taken some pressure off his brother, since he’s more capable of guarding the opponents best big man when Mason goes to the bench, something that Kelly couldn’t really do.

RYAN KELLY
Let’s face it, no player is shooting better than Ryan Kelly. After an awful shooting performance in Chapel Hill, one in which he missed wide open three after wide open three, Kelly has stepped inside the three-line and develop his mid-range game. He’s hit 12-18 from the floor since being benched and he’s only take four threes total (hitting a pair). The fact is, he’s a decent three-point shooter, but he’s not a great. When he decides not to shoot up a ton of threes, he’s just more effective. In fact, Kelly is hitting roughly 66-percent from two-point range. That’s for the year (65-101). That’s great. He shoots only 33-percent from three.

Don’t get me wrong, he needs to be shooting threes. The key to him sitting in that corner is that he draws the opponent’s big man out, opening the driving lane for Nolan Smith. I just think 2-3 attempts per game is fine.

SETH CURRY
Clearly Seth has become the legit third scoring option. Since Irving went down, Curry has averaged about 10.3 points per game. Since the BC game on the 27th of January, he’s hit a solid 49-percent of his threes. What I like best about Curry is how he’s stepped up big time in the biggest games…all three North Carolina games.

Against the Tar Heels, he’s averaged nearly 18 per game, hitting 18-31 shots. Those are great numbers.

The reality is, prior to the start of the season, I was curious to see how Curry would handle the tournament atmosphere. It’s one thing to shoot good at home in a friendly environment, it’s a whole different thing to produce in a one-and-done tournament. For a while I was actually worried about this, because Curry’s numbers dipped on the road. However, over the last month and a half, he’s begun to shoot better outside of Cameron and he had no problem putting the ball in the basket in Greensboro.

If Curry could do one thing better, I’d like to see him do more of what he did at the end of the Maryland. Think back, when Smith went out, Curry became the point guard…Seth did an amazing job handling the ball, driving to the lane, scoring, getting foul. It was unlike anything we’ve seen this year.

Yet, with Nolan back in the lineup the past two games, I can’t recall a single time Curry drove the ball into the lane. Why not do both? Sure he’s in there for his long-range shot, but just imagine if he did a ball-fake, leaving his man in the air, dove to the lane, forcing the opponents big to help and then dish to Miles or Mason for an easy jam. Possible, just not happening.

ANDRE DAWKINS
No one questions Dawkins’ ability to shoot from three. He can. He should. He’s Duke’s best long-range shooter. When the Blue Devils start off ice cold, it is usually Dawkins who comes in and provides a scoring lift. Yet, towards the end of the season, Dawkins’ minutes disappeared. What happened?

Three things happened. Curry got better. Nothing Dawkins can do about that. What’s he doing better than Dawkins? That’s number two…Moving (without the ball). Curry has done a lot better job moving around on the offense, finding ways to get open. Dawkins had a tendency to stand around. Lastly, Dawkins had become a liability on defense. The fact is, go back and watch a game in February. Just watch Dawkins and you would see a guy who found himself trailing on a play. He seemed to be asleep on the defensive end.

However, in the ACC tournament, Dawkins seems to have stepped up his defensive game. While he certainly could do a better job of using his feet on defense (he still gets tied up), you can’t question his aggressiveness. He’s certainly made it a mission of his to earn his time back on the floor. If he can do this, then Duke doesn’t really have a need for Thornton. (more…)

Of course the big story in the Duke win was the potential loss of Nolan Smith. God damn toes! I’ll save my toe thoughts for the end. For now, lets you and I focus on what happened tonight.

There was a lot to be impressed by. Where to start?

SLINGIN’ SINGLER
Duke senior, Kyle Singler, who has recently found it tougher to score than a North Korean soccer team, really had his best game in a long, long time. This was even more impressive than his 28-point outburst against Temple. In that game, all his points came at or near the basket, attacking a smaller team. Like I said at the time, he didn’t really end his “shooting” slump.

Maybe because he’s finally starting to realize this is the end, but tonight he was able to avoid the slump (note I’m not using the word ending. One good night does not end a month long slump). I loved what I saw from him tonight though. His first shot was a mid-range jumper, his last shot was a mid-range jumper (both from the elbow).  He did a little from the inside. He did a little from the outside. Sure he didn’t hit any threes (0-4), but props should go to Maryland’s D. Gary Williams had his boys on the line, in their grill, daring Duke to drive.

HE’S NOT HEAVY, HE’S MY BROTHER
Smart move by Coach K to stick brother Miles into the starting lineup with Mason. Ryan Kelly has become sort of a defensive liability the past few weeks and a liability is not what you want when you’re facing Jordan Williams (in my mind, the best big man in the ACC). By sticking in Miles, it puts a thicker body on Williams and helps keep Mason out of foul trouble.

The brother duo really jelled tonight. Mason had a double-double, 10 points, 11 rebounds, but most impressively, five assists. Slowly but surely he’s starting to do two things well.

First, he’s putting his back to the basket and scoring (or dishing). Second, he’s hitting his free throws. I think it certainly helped to have another big man playing well early. When his brother Miles or Ryan Kelly do well, Mason seems to just relax and becomes a smoother player.

Miles arguable had his best game of the year. He finished with 10 points and nine rebounds. More importantly a stunning eight of his nine rebounds were on the offensive end.

I will argue that Duke will need to improve on actually making teams pay for allowing a rebound. Ironically I always argue that our big men tend to pass out after offensive rebounds. Tonight Miles did do just that. He took it back up, just not very successfully.

Overall, the Blue Devils only scored off of two of Miles’ eight offensive rebounds. However, he took six of those shots. For the record he produced all four points that were scored off his boards.

MR. PERFECT
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, when Kelly’s cold, I can feel the frost on MY nipples all the way here in NY. When he’s hot, he can light up downtown Durham. Tonight it was the latter.

With Nolan Smith and Seth Curry unable to produce points in the first half (one combined basket in the first half), Ryan Kelly came off the pine and nailed five jumpers, including his first three pointer away from Cameron since February 16 at Virginia.

PAUSE
Sorry, stopping to watch the mud wrestling scene from Stripes…man I miss John Candy…okay, I’m back. (more…)

The Devils have now won their last six by 20+ (and have done that 10 times total this season). It’s one thing to do it against Long Beach State, but they’ve done it against a ranked Clemson team and a good Iowa State team in back-to-back teams.

SO WHAT DID I SEE TONIGHT?

I saw who the leader is. It’s Jon Scheyer. The man appears slower than dirt, but somehow he gets the job done. Tonight, 31 points, four assists just for fun (a decent 2/1 assist-to-turnover ratio). I hate to use this word because quite frankly, I think the “experts” use it too much when talking about white players, but he just seems smarter than everyone else on that court.

Just watch him play…it’s pretty amazing. He’s dribbling the ball at a snails pace, looking like he could trip on his own feet at any second, but the next thing you know, he’s putting in an easy lay up, while the defender stands there looking confused.

I saw another great five-minute offense. Over the last 25 years, the Devils have always been a great late-game offense; the ability with the lead, with five minutes left, to be able to hold, hold, hold before getting into their offense. However, over the last four or five years, they lost it a bit. Duke struggled to hold leads late in games.

However, this season they’ve been fantastic. How many times have we’ve seen a Duke guard hold the ball and with ten seconds on the clock, make his move and then someone makes a basket with less than three clicks on the clock?

Nolan Smith typically has been the ball handler late in these situations, simply because he is the only Duke player capable of going 1-on-1 and creating his own shot. However, the Devils did a great job tonight spreading the floor out and getting to their spots once Nolan made his move. When it’s working, it is damn pretty. (more…)

Reports are sketchy at best (nothing on the big news sites as of yet), but it appears she was riding in a car with four other people, including Dawkins’ mother, who was hurt in the crash. We do not know how badly at this point.

As someone who has never lost a sibling, I can’t fanthom what this kid is going through. My heart goes out to him.

- Obviously the big news is Coach K leading the men’s basketball squad in China. For the first time in a long while, I will be excited to watch Olympic basketball. Anything less than a gold will be a disappointment. I tend to agree with the experts who say that the team lacks another big man. I see no reason for Jason Kidd to be on the team (too many point guards) and no, I’m not just saying that because Kidd single handily knocked out Duke from the 1993 NCAA tournament. I did read somewhere that Coach K wasn’t a good fit (sorry I can’t find the link). Why would pro athletics listen to a college coach was the basic argument? I disagree with this logic. The player’s have responded well to Coach K so far, seeing him more as a teacher than a boss. To me, there are only a handful of coaches who could have pulled this off.

Interesting fact about the Olympic team I didn’t know #1: Dean Smith (yep, Carolina’s Dean Smith) recommended Coach K for the head coaching job to Jerry Colangelo.

Interesting fact about the Olympic team I didn’t know #2: If the United States wins the Gold Medal, Coach K (and his staff) don’t get a medal. I never knew.

Interesting fact about the Olympic team I didn’t know #3: During the first day of practice, Coach K played Marvin Gay singing the National anthem and there were actually a handful of players who were hearing it for the first time.
(more…)