Duke Basketball vs. Louisville Preview
By Thomas Eames
Mar 31, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Rasheed Sulaimon (14) drives against Louisville Cardinals guard Peyton Siva (3) in the first half during the finals of the Midwest regional of the 2013 NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
This matchup occurred in the Elite Eight last season, where Louisville knocked out Duke on their way to winning the National Championship. Louisville was able to beat Duke in that game, after Duke beat Louisville earlier in the season to win “The Battle 4 Atlantis”. It was a contrast of styles, between Louisville’s press and fast break and Duke’s shooting and post offense. This year, Duke will be taking a page out of Louisville’s book and will play much more uptempo. These teams will be very similar, and will be a great matchup if they play each other in the tournament again.
All stats are from last season unless stated otherwise.
Point Guard
•Duke: Quinn Cook (Jr) 11.7 ppg, 5.3 apg, 3.8 rpg, 1.4 spg, at Duke.
•Louisville: Chris Jones (Jr) 21.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 3.0 spg, at Northwest Florida State.
Quinn Cook has the advantage in this matchup due to his experience in top level college basketball. Last season, Quinn Cook struggled against Peyton Siva. Siva was too fast off the dribble and pressured Cook well on the press. I think that this advantage will switch this year in Duke’s favor. Chris Jones could surprise everyone, but this is a position that I think Duke will be able to excel. Duke plans to press more this season, and Cook and Tyler Thorton could pressure Jones into some costly turnovers. Quinn Cook does not have the scoring ability to completely dominate this matchup, but he can definitely take advantage. In a game with many extremely close match ups, Duke’s potential ability to win this one would be huge. I think Chris Jones will be an effective player, but Quinn Cook is a better player with the ability to capitalize on this match up.
•Advantage: Duke
Shooting Guard
•Duke: Rasheed Sulaimon (Soph) 11.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, at Duke.
•Louisville: Russ Smith (Senior) 18.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.1 spg, at Louisville.
As talented as Rasheed Sulaimon is, Russ Smith is that much better. In the two games last season. Russ Smith averaged 20 points while helping to hold Rasheed Sulaimon to 8.5 points per game. Russ Smith may be the fastest player in college and Rasheed Sulaimon struggled to stay in front of him. Rasheed Sulaimon will be much improved this season and will be able to keep this match up closer this season. It is also unknown how effective Russ Smith will be without Peyton Siva at point guard. Even if the match up is closer then last year, I still expect Russ Smith to excel. I expect Louisville to win this match up the same way Duke wins at point guard. As a whole, I expect the guards to play extremely close to a draw. If one team could pull ahead at the guard positions, they would have a huge advantage in the game.
•Advantage: Louisville
Small Forward:
•Duke: Rodney Hood (Soph) 10.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, at Mississippi State 2011-12.
•Louisville: Luke Hancock (Senior) 8.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, at Louisville.
Of all the match ups in this potential game, this is the most intriguing. It is a battle between Rodney Hood’s talent and explosiveness versus Luke Hancock’s craftiness and shooting. As close as I think this match up will be, I think Rodney Hood will the advantage. Both would likely score double digit points, but Hood’s ability to attack the rim would be the difference. If Duke is in transition, then he will be able to score with ease around the rim against Hancock. If it turns into a half court game, Hancock will have the advantage. Hancock can attack off the dribble, as well as shoot. This is a match up between two great underrated players, and I think athleticism beats craftiness in this game. Even though I see Rodney Hood winning the match up, it will be by a very small margin.
•Advantage: Duke
Power Forward
•Duke: Jabari Parker (Fresh) 18.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.1 bpg, 1.9 spg, at Simeon High School.
•Louisville: Chane Behanan (Jr) 9.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.4 spg, at Louisville.
These are two completely different players who play two completely different games. Jabari Parker is really a small forward that will be very successful in taking Chane Behanan off the dribble. Behanan is a great rebounder power forward who will score against Parker off put backs and the occasional post up. Parker’s size, actually two inches taller than Behanan, will allow him to minimize Behanan’s rebounding, at least a little. Jabari Parker is just too talented offensively for a post player to stay with him. Both players will have success, but Parker will be the better player in this game.
•Advantage: Duke
Center
•Duke: Amile Jefferson (Soph) 4.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, at Duke.
•Louisville: Montrezl Harrell (Soph) 5.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg, at Louisville.
This is a match up between two players with limited minutes last year. Jefferson was stuck behind Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly, while Harrell was behind Gorgui Dieng. With the increases of playing time, both players will be forced to play better. Although both are undersized, they both are very good rebounders. They both have little experience, but Harrell played more significant minutes then Jefferson. For that reason, Harrell has the advantage in the match up. Neither will be counted on to score but they will be forced to rebound. Harrell also has the advantage because he has another solid rebounder, Chane Behanan, to help him. Louisville has the advantage here, but it likely won’t be very significant.
•Advantage: Louisville
Bench
•Duke:
Tyler Thorton (Senior) 3.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.3 spg, at Duke.
Andre Dawkins (Senior) 8.4 ppg, 2.1 apg, at Duke 2011-12.
Marshall Plumlee (Soph) 0.1 ppg, 0.6 rpg, at Duke.
•Louisville:
Wayne Blackshear (Jr) 7.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, at Louisville.
Kevin Ware (Jr) 4.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.1 spg, at Louisville.
Stephan Van Treese (Senior) 1.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, at Louisville.
Both teams have good benches with players who would start on most college basketball teams. Tyler Thorton is a great defender and hustle player. He is not the scorer Kevin Ware can be, but he will likely have a bigger impact. Ware is also a question mark, after his injury in the Elite Eight game. Wayne Blackshear and Andre Dawkins have both started at points during their careers. Blackshear will definitely make a positive impact where as Dawkins is much more streaky. If Dawkins is hitting his shots, he is just as good of a player as Blackshear. Stephan Van Treese and Marshall Plumlee are both bigs who have not played much in their careers. They likely won’t score much but will be required to rebound. The six players here will likely play to a draw or even slightly in Duke’s favor. Duke gets the overall advantage for the bench though because they have a deeper bench. Matt Jones, Alex Murphy and Josh Hairston will all make impacts at points this season while Louisville has just Terry Rozier and Tim Henderson. This is also another very close match up, but I think Duke’s bench is slightly better overall.
•Advantage: Duke
Who will win?
•Winner: Duke
Even though I think Louisville is the better team, I think Duke has the advantage in this match up. The main reason is Louisville’s inability to cover Jabari Parker or Rodney Hood. Whichever player Chane Behanan guards, they will be able to take Behanan off the dribble. Russ Smith will keep this game close, but in the end I think Duke will be able to slow him down enough. This is a game I think Duke would win, but I also think it would be extremely close and come down to the buzzer.
Tomorrow, I will be previewing Duke vs. Kentucky. This is another match up that is not scheduled to happen, but would also be a close game. Check here tomorrow to see who I think would win the game.